Looking Back at 2021, Predicting Forward to 2022

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In this final episode of 2021 Trey and Ken look back to the biggest moments of 2021 in order to make some predictions about the big issues of 2022. They cover the party system, the durability of democracy, economic policy with a focus on inflation and spending, midterm predictions, the pandemic, and a bit of thought on the 2024 presidential election.

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Meadows Contempt, Jan 6 Revelations, Texas Lawsuit, Newsom, Russian Threats, Omicron

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This week Trey is joined by Ken and they start the show discussing Mark Meadows and the House’s criminal contempt vote. The conversation focuses on the legal nature of executive privilege, the nature of 5th Amendment protections against self-incrimination, and the likelihood of the proceedings simply making it to the next election. After that the pair move on to discuss the wider information drop from Meadows, including the PowerPoints and text messages.

The hosts then move to talk about the most recent developments in Texas SB 8. Trey focuses in on the implications of the private enforcement mechanism, which turns the hosts to a discussion of California governor Newsom’s threat to use a similar mechanism against gun makers.

After that the conversation turns overseas to Russia. Trey and Ken agree that it is unlikely the Biden administration would risk war over the buildup of troops near Ukraine. They discuss what policy might happen moving forward and a discussion of the flipping of party alignment in the U.S. in relation to Russia. Trey also discusses a brief history of “Putin Power.”

Finally thee hosts engage in the recent request by the Biden Administration to uphold the healthcare vaccine mandate and, additionally, a discussion of what policy ought to be moving forward.

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Texas Abortion Law, Debt Ceiling, Ukraine, Olympic Boycott, Racial Gerrymandering, The Future

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After a tribute (of sorts) to Bob Dole, Mike comes in hot on the Supreme Court’s decision on the Texas abortion case. That surprises Jay, who feels it’s a victory (of sorts) for abortion providers in Texas. Mike agrees with Chief Justice Roberts who, in his partial dissent, argues that “it is the role of the Supreme Court in our constitutional system that is at stake.”

Next, they discuss the debt ceiling deal that was reached this week, getting into the legislative politics of it all as well as patting themselves on the back for calling it correctly (not that it was all that difficult to conclude that in the end the United States government wouldn’t default on its debt). 

Following that they delve into US foreign policy, in a look at the Biden-Putin talks over Ukraine and the Biden administration’s announcement that US diplomats will be boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympic Games in Beijing. 

Then it’s a discussion of the merits of the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Texas for alleged violations of the Voting Rights Act in creating their new congressional and state legislative districts. They agree that the VRA’s racial gerrymandering standards are awfully vague, but Mike believes they still serve a useful purpose, while Jay isn’t so convinced of that. 

After delving into the latest developments surrounding COVID, including a Senate vote to repeal the Biden administration’s workplace vaccine mandate, Mike & Jay look to the future, with their best and worst case predictions for 2022 and years beyond. Mike thinks Democrats have plenty of reasons to be concerned, and while Jay agrees he’s far more optimistic about the demise of authoritarian populism than Mike is.

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Shutdown Averted, The Supreme Court & Abortion, Amazon & Unions, Mike’s Privilege

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Mike & Jay open the show with a discussion of the deal to keep the federal government funded through mid-February, which turns into a much more philosophical argument between Jay’s Machiavellian pragmatism / realism and Mike’s liberal idealism.

Next is a discussion of oral arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which involves Mississippi’s ban on essentially all abortions after 15 weeks. Mike & Jay agree that the Supreme Court will uphold the law and, in the process, allow other states to put into place significant restrictions on the ability of women to have abortions. Where they disagree is whether or not a constitutionally protected right to terminate a pregnancy exists.

After that, they discuss a recent National Labor Relations Board ruling that Amazon acted improperly in a union election at its Bessemer, Alabama warehouse, and that a new election is necessary. Mike agrees with the ruling and believes it’s clear that Amazon was out of line in its anti-union efforts, while Jay doesn’t think the company did anything meriting a re-do of the election. This leads into a broader discussion of the role of unions in America, globalization, automation, and economic vs non-economic concerns of workers.

The show ends with Mike & Jay picking up on a theme from last week – Mike’s alleged privilege. Mike makes the case that, as a White, male, cisgendered, heterosexual, he’s swimming in an ocean of privilege. Jay concedes that Mike has had some advantages based on his gender, race, and sexual orientation, but argues that those advantages are not as great as many on the left claim, and that socioeconomic and cultural issues can be far more important.

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