The Politics Guys

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Mike and Jay kick off the episode with a discussion of Hunter Biden’s indictment on multiple federal gun-related charges. While the guys don’t see Biden ending up in a cell next to Donald Trump, they think it’s pretty clear that Hunter is guilty, but that the gun law he violated may be unconstitutional under the current Supreme Court’s view of the 2^nd Amendment.

Next is a look at Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s announcement of a Biden impeachment inquiry. They discuss why McCarthy broke his word on having a vote of the full House to authorize such a move, the role of the House Freedom Caucus, and how the ongoing budget negotiations may or may not fit in.

Then they turn to the United Auto Workers strike against GM, Ford, and Chrysler, analyzing the union’s demands for higher wages and benefits versus the automakers’ need to invest in new electric vehicle technology. They discuss the political and economic tradeoffs around moving to EVs, including potential job losses that governments have failed to adequately address through retraining and transition programs.

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Trey and Ken continue their deep dive into the U.S. Constitution with an examination of Article VI. The pair discuss the importance of the continuation of supporting treaties from prior to the Constitution, the details of the Supremacy Clause, and a discussion of the importance of no religious tests for office in contrast to England.

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Trey and Ken open the show with a discussion of Peter Navarro’s conviction of contempt of Congress. Ken points out that this is a new tactic: appealing rulings not to win, but in the hopes of receiving a pardon. Meanwhile, Trey wonders about the larger reasoning for Navarro to go to bat for Trump given he could have been easily saved by Trump earlier in the process. This leads to a discussion of Enrique Tarrio’s conviction and sentencing. Trey is surprised that mainstream candidates such as DeSantis are criticizing the process and then laments it is evidence that the Republican Party is now the party of Trump ideology.

Next the duo discuss the impeachment of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Ken (Katkin) notes that it was his own celebrity within the Christian right that ultimately bings him down among his own believers. Trey discusses the relationship between infidelity and politics.

After that is a conversation about the shocking news that the federal deficit doubled in 2023. Trey sees this as deeply problematic, especially since it is coming during a period of strong growth. He criticizes Bidenomics. Ken sees such deficits as sustainable, although they are second best options. He disagrees there is a need for structural change, unless it meant undoing tax cuts.

The Guys then turn their attention overseas to the recent Mexico Supreme Court ruling finding a right for abortion. This leads Trey and Ken to postulate how the U.S. and Mexico diverge. Trey notes that in both cases the Supreme Court’s were at odds with popular opinion in their respective countries. He wonders if Mexico will see a push for pro-life policies in a similar manner to the pro-choice bump which occurred after Dobbs.

The pair close the show with an empirical overview of Labor Unions for Labor Day. The final verdict? For better or worse they are dead.

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Mike and May open the episode with a look at the initial drugs selected for Medicare drug price negotiations, a very popular policy made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. May isn’t a fan of the program, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will save the government nearly $100 billion over a decade. She argues that it will stifle innovation and that the so-called negotiations are little more than government price setting. Mike sees things differently, believing that this gives Medicare the ability to negotiate that it should have had long ago. Mike and May agree in their view of the American health system as a big mess filled with perverse incentives.

Then they turn to Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell’s recent on-camera freeze-up – the second in little more than a month. They discuss if McConnell should retire, what happens if he does, the best method to fill Senate vacancies (it’s not the method most states use), and whether it’s time to take a serious look at age and term limits for Congress. (And maybe age limits for the president too.) That sets Mike off on a semi-rant about the 10^th Amendment. May generally agrees with him, but she’s less emotionally invested in it than Mike, who has a strangely deep attachment to the 10^th.

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Mike and Jay open the episode with a discussion of the first Republican presidential debate, featuring eight GOP presidential hopefuls with runaway favorite Donald Trump noticeably absent. Neither Jay nor Mike thinks what we saw was an actual debate, but they did find some value in hearing what the candidates had to say about supporting Donald Trump, immigration, abortion rights, and Ukraine. They also discuss Trump’s decision to skip the debate in favor of counter-programming a pre-taped interview with Tucker Carlson on X.

Is Donald Trump even constitutionally eligible to run again? Mike and Jay consider the argument that Section 3 of the 14^th Amendment bars Trump from running. It’s not some crazy liberal notion, but a lengthy and well-researched argument of two well-respected conservative legal scholars. Mike finds the logic convincing and while Jay says there’s something to it, he doesn’t think that Trump can be barred from running without some sort of authoritative legal finding. Mike disagrees but argues that Trump shouldn’t be barred because of the horrendous repercussions of such a ruling.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

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Trey and Ken continue their deep dive into the U.S. Constitution with an examination of Article V. The hosts focus on the amendment process for the U.S. Constitution, along with two issues that our Framers kept from being amended. They also discuss the possibility of a Constitutional Convention along with if there will be a 28th Amendment.

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This week Trey and Ken are joined by special guest Liz!

The Politics Guys trio start by discussing the most recent charges of racketeering against former president Trump in Georgia. Liz and Ken both see this as a good thing. Further Ken predicts Trump will wind up in jail before the end of the year. Trey thinks Ken is wrong, Trump will not wind up in jail for pragmatic political reasons. He also thinks the publicity of the trial will not fair well for Democrats.

Next the three discuss how the latest Trump charges intersect with the upcoming Republican Presidential primary. Liz thinks that Trump will turn himself in during the debate to keep the focus on him. Ken thinks that process will take longer than normal and believes it will make for bad imaging for Trump.

After that the discussion moves to the local story turned global: the Marion County Record’s raid by local police. All three discuss the implication of the Privacy Protection Act along with the more human side to the story.

The three hosts finish the show with a discussion of Senator Tommy Tuberville’s blocking of military promotions until Congress either takes action over Defense Department policy concerning paying for abortions and travel or the policy is overturned. Trey believes the Senate could and should take up the issue in normal policy, but won’t because both sides believe they win by the inaction. Ken and Liz disagree, arguing the Tuberville’s actions are without precedence.

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Mike & Jay open with a discussion of Attorney General Merrick Garland’s appointment of a special counsel in the Hunter Biden investigation after the collapse of a plea bargain between Biden and federal prosecutors. While it may not change much in practical terms, they agree that it makes sense politically.

Next is a look at the message Ohio voters sent in resoundingly rejecting a measure that would have made it more difficult to enact a state constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights in the state. Jay and Mike agree that the GOP hasn’t found its way on the issue in the post-Dobbs world, but Jay is more confident than Mike that Republicans can win over voters on the issue.

Following that they discuss the latest developments in the Trump January 6^th indictment, including the issuing of a protective order and Trump’s 1^st Amendment rights. They close with Biden’s request for additional funding for Ukraine, which given softening public support Mike believes won’t necessarily pass. Jay is more optimistic, though he laments the more insular turn of the Trump-era GOP.

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Mike & May open the episode with an in-depth discussion of the latest indictment against Donald Trump. Neither of them sees the case against the former president as particularly strong, with Mike expressing discomfort for using the criminal justice system to punish a political opponent who has done things that may be bad, dumb, and even unethical, but not clearly criminal. May thinks that, contrary to some theories on the right, special counsel Jack Smith is acting about how one would expect any special counsel to act.

Next, they move to the 2024 election and a recent NYT / Sienna College poll that has Trump and Biden in a dead heat. May doesn’t believe Donald Trump has much of a chance to return to the White House, and while Mike hopes she’s right, he has his doubts after thinking the same thing in 2016.

They close with a look at the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch. Mike argues that there aren’t likely to be significant short-term consequences, which both Mike and May see as a long-term problem for a political system that doesn’t have anything approaching the political will to address unsustainable spending. (May makes the case here that deficit spending is immoral.)

What if We’re the Bad Guys Here? David Brooks, New York Times

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

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Mike & Jay open the episode with a discussion of the new charges and additional defendant in the federal indictment related to Donald Trump’s retention of classified documents and alleged attempts to obstruct the documents investigation. Mike doesn’t think this will have much of an effect on Trump’s strong likelihood of winning the Republican presidential nomination. Jay, who is less certain of Trump being the eventual nominee, largely agrees on its minimal impact on GOP primary voters, but believes it could hurt Trump in the general election.

Next, they move on to the Hunter Biden plea agreement, agreeing that the judge was right to not accept it. Mike contends that far from being a sweetheart deal, Biden may have been treated more harshly because his father is President. Jay somewhat agrees in relation to the gun charge but has more of an issue with Biden’s failure to pay taxes.

They close with a discussion of record-setting heat and the Biden administration’s attempts to minimize its impact. While Jay doesn’t have big problems with any of the recently announced efforts, he’s more skeptical of some of the claims of climate scientists than Mike is, and has more faith in the ability of markets and technology to deal with the impact of climate change than Mike has.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.