More Election Predictions, Polling Problems, Trump’s Tariff Talk

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Jay and Justin open this episode with their predictions for the upcoming presidential election, with Justin forecasting a narrow Harris victory and Jay expecting Trump to return to the White House. They also discuss how traditional polling methods might be missing key voter segments and how social desirability bias could affect Trump supporters’ willingness to participate in polls.

Next, they look at early voting patterns and Republican voter registration trends, which they agree could be favorable indicators for Trump. They examine the challenges of predicting likely voters and how different pollsters’ methods can yield radically different results from the same raw data.

They close by considering Trump’s recent proposal for widespread tariffs, including a potential 10-20% baseline tariff on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. Jay, drawing on traditional Republican free-market principles, expresses serious concerns about these proposals, while both hosts discuss how such policies could impact the American economy. They explore the mythology of 1950s American industrialism and why attempting to recreate that era through tariffs might be both impractical and economically harmful.

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The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

2024: The Inflection Election

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Mike talks with Mark Green, founder of The Democracy Project, twice-elected Public Advocate for New York City, and the author of multiple books, the latest being, The Inflection Election: Democracy or Fascism in 2024?, which they discuss in this episode.

Topics Mike and Mark discuss include:
– the importance of the 2024 presidential election
– if Donald Trump is a fascist
– if Trump is an existential threat to American democracy
– why Mike has more faith in the Supreme Court than Mark does
– the rise of right-wing populism in democracies around the world
– election integrity and public faith in elections
– responsibility for the ‘culture wars’
– if Trump is so awful, why nearly half of all voters support him

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Kamala Harris vs Fox News, Fearless Election Predictions

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Mike and May open with a discussion of Kamala Harris’ interview with Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier. Mike thinks there were several missed opportunities for Harris, while May argues that Harris is a policy lightweight. Mike believes that the focus on immigration and gender transition surgery for inmates says a lot about what matters to the Fox audience, as does the lack of attention paid to healthcare, abortion, Ukraine, and China.

Then they turn to the state of the race and make their presidential predictions – they both think Harris will eke out a win, though neither of them are at all sure about the outcome. In making their prediction, they explain what gives them reason for optimism and what makes them feel pessimistic about the potential outcome.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

AI, Silicon Valley, and the Future of American Politics

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Mike talks with Pedro Domingos, Professor Emeritus of Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Washington. He’s an AI researcher, tech industry insider, and author of the best-selling book The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World. Recently, he’s turned his hand to political fiction, in the often hilariously funny novel 2040: A Silicon Valley Satire, which is very funny but also has plenty to say about serious issues facing us concerning technology and politics/

Topics Mike and Pedro discuss include:
why we should speed up, not slow down AI development
– the serious AI dominance threat from China
– why our big concern should be incompetent AI
– AI transparency and bias
– how AI makes direct democracy possible
– the limits of AI direct democracy
– reasons to be optimistic about AI and politics

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FEMA Lies, SCOTUS Returns, Harris and 60 Minutes

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Mike and Jay open with a discussion of the lies told by Donald Trump and JD Vance about FEMA in the wake of disaster relief efforts for hurricanes Helene and Milton. They also get FEMA’s role and whether the agency should be doing more in advance of ever-increasing major natural disasters.

Next is a discussion of oral arguments in two major cases that opened the Supreme Court’s new term – one involving ghost guns and another in which the state of Oklahoma admits prosecutorial misconduct in a death penalty case.

They close with what may be a new media strategy from Kamala Harris, and a look at her 60 Minutes interview, as well as Donald Trump’s call for CBS to have its broadcast license revoked.

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The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Faith and Community: Religious Engagement and Politics

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Mike talks with Rebecca Glazier, a Professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. Professor Glazier is the Director of the Little Rock Congregations Study and the author of the book Faith and Community: How Engagement Strengthens Members, Places of Worship, and Society, which they discuss in this episode.

Topics Mike and Rebecca Cover Include:
– the forms of religious engagement
– religious engagement and political efficacy
– the tension between community engagement and partisanship
– engagement in liberal and conservative congregations
– declining institutional authority and religious organizations

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The Vice-Presidential Debate, Israel-Iran, Dockworkers’ Strike

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Trey and Ken start with the Vice-Presidential debate. The conversation begins with an explanation of rejecting the horse-race narrative of analyzing debates and how the VP debate won’t change voting patterns. They also discuss the stability of the presidential polling numbers despite assassination attempts and a candidate dropping out. Next, they look at Iran’s recent missile barrage on Israel. The hosts also discuss Israel’s tactics against Hezbollah. They end the show with a sharp debate over the dockworkers’ strike.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Zelensky Visit, Harris on Immigration, Adams and Robinson Scandals

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Jay and Justin start with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the US, then move to Kamala Harris’s visit to the border to talk immigration policy. They wrap up with a pair of political scandals: New York Mayor Eric Adams and NC Gubernatorial Candidate Mark Robinson

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Polarized by Degrees: The Diploma Divide in American Politics

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Mike talks with Matt Grossmann, Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University. Matt was on the show in 2019 when we talked about his book on public policy change, Artists of the Possible, and he’s back again for a discussion of his latest book, co-authored with David Hopkins, Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics.

Topics Mike & Matt Discuss Include:
– the educultural realignment in American Politics
– the degree divide as an international phenomenon
– if the progressive left has moved too fast
– the dangerous ramifications of destroying institutional trust
– the political right and ‘woke capitalism’
– why liberals dominate popular culture
– conservatives’ attempts to set up parallel institutions

Matt Grossmann on X

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Political Violence, Springfield, Ducking the Media, Fed Rate Cut

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Mike and May open with a discussion of the 2nd attempt (that we know of) on Donald Trump’s life, which turns into a broader consideration of extremist rhetoric on both sides and political violence. May believes that Trump has been targeted more than any other figure, suggesting more of a problem on the left. Mike thinks that things will get considerably worse, no matter which candidate wins in November.

Next, they consider how events have unfolded in Springfield Ohio, in the wake of Donald Trump’s lie about Haitian migrants in Springfield stealing and then eating family pets. May believes that the real focus should be on the problems associated with immigration, while Mike argues that Trump and Vance have crossed an important line – from spinning and exaggerating to having seemingly no concern for truth, if baldfaced lies serve their cause.

From there it’s a look at media avoidance by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. May and Mike agree that it’s a smart strategy, and Mike is more curious as to why JD Vance has been so prominent, given how much of what Vance has to say may turn off undecided voters (at least that’s Mike’s take).

They close with a discussion of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut since 2020. Mike doesn’t buy the argument from Trump that it’s either a sign of a bad economy or that it was politically motivated. May points to how the cut is likely to help people hoping to buy a home.

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Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.