Uvalde Shooting, Primaries, Police Accountability, Regulating Big Tech

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Mike & Jay open the show with an extended conversation on the tragic mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas. They discuss the police response, the problem of gun violence in the United States, and a raft of policy proposals from both the left and the right.

Next, they look at the recent primary elections in Georgia and consider whether the shellacking of two high-profile Donald Trump endorsed candidates means the waning of Trump’s influence in the Republican Party. They also look at the upcoming Michigan primary election, where five of the 10 Republican gubernatorial candidates were disqualified from appearing on the ballot.

After that, it’s President Biden’s recent Executive Order on police accountability. Mike & Jay weigh in on the EO, and also whether it should serve as a template for the majority of law enforcement personnel who are not federal and therefore not covered under the order.

They close with a discussion of bipartisan Senate legislation that would force Google and Facebook to sell significant portions of their businesses. Is this idea – which seemingly unites the Libertarian right and the corporate-skeptical left good policy? And what chance does it have of becoming law?

Mike’s Recommendation
America’s Philosophy, with Cornel West. (Vox Conversations)

Jay’s Recommendation
District of Columbia v. Heller (2008) 

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Buffalo Shooting, Pennsylvania Primaries, Cawthorne’s loss, FEC vs Cruz, Bezos vs President Biden, Abortion

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Trey & Ken open the show talking about the Buffalo shooting with a focus on the shooter’s, Payton Gendron, screed. They discuss why the screed is hard to find, its contents, and they tackle the problems of fascism in the United States. They also discuss the underlying racial shifts that fascism and racism has taken.

Next they move to the razor thin Pennsylvania Senate primaries between Oz and McCormick and how Trump’s influence continues, or not, to hold sway. They also discuss how election law and closeness impact election counting.

After that it is scandal ridden Cawthorne’s House loss and a discussion of his comments on “dark MAGA” on instagram. There is also a brief discussion of the gubernatorial primary in Idaho.

Then it is off to the Supreme Court for a conversation on Federal Election Commission v. Cruz and what constitutes a bribe. Here also is a conversation about Supreme Court precedent.

Next is a discussion of Bezos, President Biden, and inflation — specifically the relationship between tax policy and inflation.

They close by revisiting the issue of abortion upon listener request. They discuss, and vigorously disagree over, the philosophic and moral arguments of abortion.

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Life After Roe, Trump’s Primary Success, COVID, Ukraine/Russia, Inflation, Expat Mike?

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Mike & Jay open the show with a discussion of the post Roe landscape, given the near certainty of the Supreme Court finding that there is no constitutionally protected right to terminate a pregnancy. They look at some data on pregnancy and abortion, discuss the recent efforts of Democrats to codify Roe’s protections into law, how states are likely to act, and whether a future Republican chamber might pass a national abortion restriction.

Next they turn to Donald Trump’s success as a primary endorser and what it means for Trump’s control over the GOP, followed by the latest on Ukraine – including Finland & Sweden applying for NATO membership and a $40 billion Ukraine package.

After that it’s inflation:  the latest downturn (sort of), what the Fed has been and likely will do in the future, how markets have reacted, how big of a role the American Rescue Plan has played in fueling inflation, and whether US tariffs against China should be rolled back.

They close the show with Mike’s announcement that he and his wife are thinking about retiring to either Uruguay, Chile, or Portugal in the next few years. Mike explains why, brings up some data on how those countries compare to the US in terms of freedom and corruption, and he and Jay discuss the tension between American nationalism and Stoic cosmopolitanism.

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Adam Probolsky on Polling and Partisan Identification

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Trey talks with Adam Probolsky, President of Probolsky Research, a full service opinion research firm specializing in market research and opinion research on elections and public policy, working on behalf of business, government, non-profit, special interest and media clients.

Trey and Adam’s conversation includes:

  • A conversation on political and public policy research.
  • Adam’s overview of quantitative data and polling.
  • How qualitative measures can help create better polling data.
  • Probolsky research on political identification and predicting voting behavior.

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Abortion Leak, Intelligence Leak, Puerto Rico, JD Vance, Shurtleff

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Trey and Ken open the show with a two-pronged discussion of the leaked Alito opinion overturning Roe v Wade. First the pair discuss the opinion itself, the location of the right to privacy, and, ultimately, the legal obligations states can (or should) impose based on the question of what constitutes life. Second, the pair discuss the implications of the leak and who may be the source of the leak.

After that, they turn to another leak: the intelligence community leak in the New York Times suggesting that the U.S. was helping Ukrainian forces target Russian generals. 

Then they turn to the recently decided U.S. v Valero Madero concerning the applicability of the 5th Amendment to Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories. To what extent should the Constitution apply to territories and what are the larger effects of having it apply more uniformly?

Then they turn to the Republican primaries in Ohio and Indiana. The question here is what the data says Trump’s seal of approval means for candidates? How do MAGA candidates fair in the primaries compared to the more mainstream conservatives or if MAGA is the mainstream for the Republican Party.

They close the show by briefly discussing the case of Shurtleff v. City of Boston and why a straightforward case made its way to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Ken’s Recommendation
Bernie

Trey’s Recommendations
The Everything Store

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Paul Brandus on Presidential Communication in the Biden and Trump Administrations

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Trey talks with Paul Brandus, independent member of the White House press corps and founder of West Wing Reports (@WestWingReport), columnist, and author of books including Under This Roof and This Day in Presidential History.

Trey and Paul’s conversation includes:

  • Paul’s assessment of former President Donald Trump’s communication strategy
  • Paul’s thoughts on President Biden’s communication strengths and weaknesses
  • Discussion of what makes a better presidential communication strategy
  • The effect of social media on presidential communication

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.

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