Month: October 2018

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On this week’s show, Will and Mike begin by discussing the mail bombs sent by Cesar Sayoc to Trump political enemies. Mike points out that these events are symptomatic of the current political environment in which politics is a blood sport. Will agrees with concerns about how political rhetoric can be taken to extremes but does not believe Trump will see himself as at fault—nor should he. Both Mike and Will see merit in Trump’s assertion that the media has some role in the current environment.

Looking at the immigration caravan from Honduras, Mike is disturbed by Trump’s characterization of the group as being full of criminals and terrorists. Will, on the other hand, is most worried by the idea of a collective group mounting what could be perceived as an invasion. Both Mike and Will find fault in policies and spending priorities related to immigration and note that this could impact the margins with certain midterm elections.

Regarding Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would withdraw from the INF treaty, both Mike and Will believe that this is a valid decision given Russia’s blatant disregard for adhering to the standards held within. Mike is concerned with the potential spillover to the new START treaty, whereas Will believes this action should dispel some concerns over Trump’s alleged ties to Putin and Russia.

Lastly, Will and Mike discuss the court ruling barring Georgia from throwing out absentee ballots for signatures not matching voter registration. While Mike believes that this will help to ensure a legitimate process, Will believes the stipulations set forth in the ruling will prove to be a difficult bureaucratic process for local officials and will introduce a new series of questions.

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In this listener mail episode, Mike and Jay answer the following questions:

• How big of a deal is the Canadian dairy industry in the overall context of a renegotiated trade agreement, and should we be concerned about the effect of the USMCA on the Canadian dairy industry?
• Why doesn’t the show place more emphasis on the views of ‘rational alarmists’?
• Should corporate tax policy be changed to incentivize paying higher wages to workers?
• Are Libertarian ideas ‘good on paper’ but unworkable in real life?

Show Notes
Who should be the first non-guy Politics Guy? Let us know (and tell us what you think about the current Politics Guys) by taking this short Politics Guys Hosts Survey. We appreciate your feedback!

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you’re interested in supporting the show, go to politicsguys.com/support.

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Mike and Jay open the show with discussion of the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi Arabian security personnel. Jay argues that while President Trump’s rhetoric has been typically Trumpian, in terms of substance his response has been measured and reasonable. Mike calls for strong action in response to the killing and argues that the Trump administration’s decision to go all in on friendship with the autocratic Saudi regime should be reconsidered.

Then it’s a look at the federal budget deficit, which rose nearly 17 percent from last year, due in large part to sharp declines in corporate tax revenue following the GOP tax bill that passed in December of 2017. Mike says that this is no surprise, as economists on both the right and left said the cuts wouldn’t come close to paying for themselves. Jay argues that while this may be the case, growth is strong and we need to wait longer to see if the long term results of the cuts are positive.

After that, the Guys take a look at a new rule proposed by the Trump administration that would require pharmaceutical companies to include price information in their drug ads. Mike applauds the move, though he doesn’t think it will lead to the sort of cost reductions the administration hopes for. Jay agrees, and argues that this is unnecessary government interference in the market.

Show Notes
Who should be the first non-guy Politics Guy? Let us know (and tell us what you think about the current Politics Guys) by taking this short Politics Guys Hosts Survey. We appreciate your feedback!

Listen to Mike being interviewed on the Thales’ Well podcast. He gets into his intellectual origins, Edmund Burke, John McCain, Donald Trump, and lots more.

Check out Outvote, the app Mike mentioned on the show.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you’re interested in supporting the show, go to politicsguys.com/support.

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Trey Orndorff welcomes Alexandra Filindra from the University of Illinois at Chicago to The Politics Guys this week. The Politics Guys ask listeners to give us your comments and feedback on Alexandra and the show this week.

First up Trey thanks listener Erik who caught a mistake last week. Trey said Justice Kennedy withdrew his support of Kavanaugh when he meant to say Stevens. Thanks Erik, we truly appreciate it!

After the correction Trey and Alexandra get into the midterm question. Specifically Trey brings up Trump’s USA Today op-ed and his apology to Kavanaugh. Alexandra is surprised that Trump would write an op-ed and wonders aloud what the benefit might be. Trey sees a consistent communication pattern and thinks the op-ed is good strategy — as is setting up opposition to Kavanaugh as being for “the mob.”

This leads Trey and Alexandra to talk in detail on the midterm election strategy and transitions to questions of election fundraising in the wake of the Kavanaugh confirmation. Democrats are reporting big dollar donation increases and Republicans are pointing to percentage increases in funds. Both point to Kavanaugh as the reason why.

Trey asks Alexandra what she thinks of the Democrats chances in the Senate given the dip in the polls for Democratic Senator Heitkamp after voting against Kavanaugh. Alexandra brings up it is more difficult for Democrats due to gerrymandering and Trey argues it was a Republican party focused on local elections that set them up for these wins.

Trey and Alexandra then turn to Nikki Haleys resignation. Specifically they discuss the timing, both in relation to the midterm elections and to the Kavanaugh confirmation process. It also gets both of them to discuss party and campaign strategy for 2020 and beyond.

The final story is the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. As of the show’s airing it appears likely that the Saudi King ordered Jamal killed with video evidence coming from Turkey. On the American front it has led to a split between Congressional Republicans and President Trump on the proper response.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you are interested in supporting the show, go to politicsguys.com/support/

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This week Trey Orndorff and The Politics Guys is excited to introduce Athena King, a political scientist from Virginia State University. The Politics Guys asks that listeners listen to Athena and send us your feedback on what you think of the show.

After introduction Trey and Athena again dress the newest developments concerning Brett Kavanaugh. Specifically the two discuss Kavanaugh’s Washington Post Op-Ed in defense of his hearings and the Friday cloture vote that opens the possibility of a vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination on Saturday or Sunday. Both Trey and Athena agree that Kavanaugh is likely to be confirmed, but Trey thinks it will be a wider margin with limited Democratic support and Athena believes Mike Pence will be necessary to cast a tie-breaking vote.

Trey and Athena the address “Nafta 2.0” or more properly USMCA. Athena argues that American supply chains need more open markets. Trey agrees but is willing to concede that this is a win for the Trump Presidency and a fulfillment of a large campaign promise. Athena gets into the details of automobiles while Trey focuses on the international economic questions of the shift. Only time will tell if and when the Senate will take up the issue.

Next the pair move to an underreported story out of Bloomberg on the possibility of a Chinese hardware hack on American company servers. Apple and Facebook have denied the allegations, but it appears that China has been trying to infiltrate servers in the U.S. Trey wonders if this might not be an argument for a more nationalist economic policy and is, at a minimum, a question that free marketeers like himself must answer. Athena questions what the Chinese motive is.

Finally Trey and Athena discuss the issue of Trump’s finances in wake of a New York Time story highlighting the dubious — and potentially fraudulent — money policies the Trump family used. Athena and Trey agree that this is unlikely to move the needle of support for Trump, but wonder what the broader picture will continue to be as more information slowly drips out.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you’re interested in supporting the show, go to politicsguys.com/support.