Author: Michael Baranowski

Trey is joined by Mike this week. The show begins with a discussion of Ron DeSantis’ presidential announcement on Twitter Spaces. The discussion focuses both on the content of the announcement, DeSantis running against legacy media, and the the technical aspect of the announcement itself on Twitter.

Next the pair discuss Tim Scott’s presidential announcement earlier in the week contrasting it with DeSantis. They also stack up all the candidates against Trump. Mike argues that Scott is angling for a vice-presidential slot and Trey is unconvinced.

After that, they turn to the lack of a debt ceiling increase before Memorial Day. Both think a deal will get struck, but Trey thinks more Americans also want spending cuts than Democrats realize.

Next, the duo discuss the Supreme Court case on the Clean Water Act in Sackett v EPA. What does this mean more immediately, but also the pair consider the ideological splitting of the conservative majority along with what it means to be conservative in the post-Trump era.

They close the show with a brief update on Ukraine.

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Mike is joined this week by a new co-host, May Mailman, a Harvard Law graduate and former Trump White House staffer. Mike and May start off with a discussion of the Durham report and accountability in federal law enforcement. May argues that a core problem is federal law enforcement that does too much. Mike isn’t entirely sold on that, but he agrees with her that there should be greater accountability and more severe consequences for anyone in law enforcement who breaks the rules in an attempt to hurt an ideological opponent.

Next, they discuss the end of Title 42 and the border surge that hasn’t happened – at least not yet. May agrees with Mike that Title 42 isn’t good immigration policy and makes a case for big changes to asylum status. She also points out that it may be too soon to know how well the Biden administration has done at preventing a surge, and says that in any case, current ‘non-surge’ numbers are concerningly high.

After that, they turn to Mike Pence’s expected entry into the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Mike can’t quite figure out why Pence would enter the race unless it’s some Kamikaze attempt to keep Trump out of the White House. May suggests that a sort of overconfidence common to many politicians may be a factor, but agrees with Mike that there seems to be no viable path to the nomination for Pence. Even so, she’s glad he plans to enter the race, as she believes it will help test the eventual nominee before the general election.

They close with a look at two related tech decisions announced by the Supreme Court concerning the liability of social media companies for terrorist attacks.

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In this special bonus midweek episode of The Politics Guys, Mike & Jay answer listener questions on what an ‘acceptable’ level of gun deaths might be, when we’d consider abandoning our respective political parties, the verdict against Trump in E. Jean Carroll’s civil suit, negative political advertising, and how Trump in the White House in 2025 might affect the war in Ukraine.

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Trey & Ken open the episode with a conversation about the end of immigration policy under Title 42 and the beginning of it being handled under Title 8. Trey points out that Biden is likely to lose from both sides of the ideological divide on his policy, both the left and the right. Ken thinks the policy will help Biden come the election. Both agree that there needs to be more space for immigration, specifically asylum seekers, in the United States.

Next is Trump’s loss of a defamation lawsuit to E. Jean Carroll. Trey & Ken discuss both what makes the civil trial unique and the political aftermath of it. Ken believes it might have a small effect. Trey doesn’t believe any actions will change the political landscape for Trump.

After that Trey & Ken tackle Santos. In addition to his pending criminal charges in the U.S. he pled no contest in Brazil. Trey highlights both the unusual nature of Santos lies, but takes hope in the fact that his inability to channel Trump indicates Trump’s uniqueness in the American political system.

Then the pair turn to Trump’s CNN Town Hall. Trey believes that Trump was back in his element. Not worried about a larger narrative, Trump can play to a larger audience in his sound bites. Meanwhile Ken believes Trump is only harming himself with the larger public. Trey counters that current polling suggests otherwise.

Following that Trey & Ken move to discussing the EPA rules. Trey outlines the pragmatic problems with the new rules. Specifically the backlog of requests to the agency that already exist that will become exasperated by the policy. Ken believes the rules are still helpful because they allow for a kind of positive agency capture situation — even if they are ultimately found unconstitutional.

The guys close discussing National Pork Producers Council v. Ross and the court’s messy approach to the dormant commerce clause. Trey points out that the the alignment of the judges once again doesn’t align with Ken’s views of the conservative members of the court. Ken agrees, especially as it comes to the split locations of the liberal justices. Ken explains the dormant Commerce clause and his surprise the decision wasn’t 9-0.

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Mike, Jay, and Ryan open this episode with a discussion of the conviction of four members of the Proud Boys for seditious conspiracy for their actions related to the January 6^th Capitol breach. They’re all against sedition (not surprising) but Mike points out some elements of the case that Jay thinks could provide some grounds for appeal.

Next they turn to the debt limit. Ryan starts things off with an historical overview of the debt ceiling, after which they discuss whether the 14^th amendment’s ‘public debt’ clause means that the administration must honor its debts, regardless of any limit imposed by congress. They also get into the politics of debt ceiling negotiations and the potential ramifications of even a short-term default.

Following that Ken joins the conversation as they look at a case in which the Supreme Court is almost certain to significantly constrain or eliminate outright Chevron deference, in which courts defer to administrative agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous legislation.

The show closes with a look at the case of Zooey Zephyr, the transgender Montana legislator who was barred from the floor by the Republican majority.

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Mike & Jay open the episode with a discussion of whether the Supreme Court was right to issue a stay in the mifepristone case, a decisions that allows women to continue to have access to the abortion drug as the matter winds its way through the appeals process. Mike & Jay both agree that a stay was the right call, though Jay argues that Justice Alito makes some valid points in his dissent.

Then they turn to the party-line passage of a debt ceiling increase (among many other things) by House Republicans. They agree that this bill isn’t going anywhere, and that President Biden will eventually negotiate with Republicans, even if he doesn’t quite admit that that’s what he’s doing. Mike argues that this could potentially hurt Biden’s reelection chances, but Jay feels that debt ceiling fights typically end up making Republicans look worse.

They close by discussing Disney’s lawsuit against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and other top state officials. It seems almost unquestionable that this is a case of government retaliation, but whether that’s a violation of Disney’s 1^st Amendment rights is less clear. Disney might have a better argument when it comes to the Contracts Clause, but even there it’s far from clear that Disney will prevail in court. Politically, Jay argues that DeSantis miscalculated in his battle with Disney and now finds himself stuck.

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Ryan & Mike kick off the show with a discussion of Fox’s $787 million settlement with Dominion over claims that the news network defamed the voting machine company. They get into why Fox felt compelled to settle, what this may mean for other defamation lawsuits, and if it will have a chilling effect on defamatory speech by the news media.

Next they consider whether 89 year old California Senator Diane Feinstein should resign her seat after being away since February recovering from shingles and for several years showing clear signs of cognitive impairment. This leads into a discussion of Feinstein’s important role on the Senate Judiciary Committee and President Biden’s judicial appointments.

They end by looking at Groff v. DeJoy, a case in which an evangelical Christian former USPS employee is arguing that the Postal Service discriminated against him because of his religion. Based on past precedent and oral argument before the Supreme Court this week, Mike expects the Court to rule for the Postal Service but to do so in such a way that may expand religious protection. Ryan wonders what sort of effect the ruling will have on protection for other religious practitioners and if media reports fearing the worst are overstated.

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The 400th Episode of The Politics Guys!

Trey & Ken start the show with a long investigation into Justice Thomas’ undisclosed gifts from Harlan Crow. Trey, who was initially skeptical of the claims of impropriety, finds there is good reason to find issue. Ken agrees but goes further in his arguments for curruption.

Next they turn to the recent rulings on Mifepristone by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeal. The focus is primarily on what, if anything, the FDA can or should do in response to the rulings. Ken sees no functional difference between deference and ignoring the ruling. Trey sees a key difference in that one is a constitutionally consistent principle and the other is not.

After that is a long conversation on the papers potentially leaked. Ken floats a novel idea: that the leak is a bit of counter espionage. Trey probes the idea to see if it holds up and works out what would have to continue to be found empirically for the thesis to be true.

Then the pair turn to the expulsion of two African American Tennessee House members. The conversation between both focuses on the rightful, if any, action the legislature should have taken given that the rules were violated by three members of that body.

Trey & Ken end the show discussing Trump’s latest legal appeals.

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Mike, Jay, and Ryan open the show with a discussion of the dueling district court rulings on the FDA-approved abortion pill mifepristone, with a federal judge in Texas ordering a nationwide injunction against the drug and a federal judge in Washington State ruling the opposite way the same day. Because the story broke just before the show was recorded, the guys didn’t get into the specifics of the rulings, focusing their discussion on forum shopping and nationwide injunctions.

Following that, Ryan clarified his remarks from last week on net neutrality, which led to a discussion of the pros and cons of the Obama-era FCC policy that was revoked in Donald Trump’s FCC.

Then they turn to the 34 count indictment against Donald Trump, agreeing that legally it’s awfully thin. While it may make it harder to successfully prosecute Donald Trump in the future (Mike is less sure of this than Jay and Ryan are), it may help Bragg’s career and give Trump a boost in the GOP primary – which could be exactly what Joe Biden wants.

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