Author: Michael Baranowski

Mike & Jay open the show with a discussion of the 11^th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that District Judge Aileen Cannon abused her discretion in denying the Department of Justice use of the roughly 100 classified documents they seized in their Mar-a-Lago raid until a special master reviewed them. Jay doesn’t entirely agree with the 11^th Circuit, arguing that Judge Cannon acted reasonably given the history of deception by the FBI and the more general perception that the government is out to get Donald Trump. Mike agrees that this is a perception, but only on the right, and that one can acknowledge unlawful behavior by some people in law enforcement without believing that this requires that judges create a more lenient set of standards for Donald Trump.

Next is a look at the civil lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Donald Trump and three of his children for misrepresentation of assets. Mike surprises Jay by coming out against the lawsuit – not because Mike thinks Donald Trump didn’t overvalue assets, but because he sees it as a largely victimless offense (those who lent to Trump seemed willing to accept his valuations without independent confirmation) and nearly impossible to prove, making it not only a questionable use of government resources, but also something that might actually strengthen Trump’s “they’re out to get me” narrative.

They close by considering Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s announcement of sham elections in four Russian controlled Ukrainian areas, and Putin’s threat to use any means necessary to defend “Russian territory” from attack. Mike expects that the West won’t be willing to risk escalation over a low-yield Russian nuclear strike and that in the end, Putin will come away from this in control of at least part of Ukraine. Jay is more optimistic about the potential for Ukrainians to reclaim much of their territory as well as the willingness of not only the West, but China to punish Russia for using nuclear weapons.

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Mike & Jay open the episode with an update of developments in the FBI search of Donald Trump’s home and office, including the special master appointed by Judge Cannon, Cannon’s denial of DOJ’s request to allow them access to certain documents, and how they expect the process to play out.

Next, they take a look at the August inflation report. Mike & Jay agree that the current inflation picture is troubling, but Mike points out that things could potentially look a lot better before too long. They conclude that while the Fed should continue to raise rates, they shouldn’t raise them too high too quickly.

Then it’s a discussion of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis flying a bunch of migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts. The guys both see it as a political stunt – along with fellow GOP Governor Greg Abbott’s migrant relocations – but Jay believes it’s making an important point about our broken asylum system. Mike doesn’t dispute the brokenness of our system but argues that the Biden administration has tried to advance immigration legislation, only to have it spurned by Republicans in Congress.

They close the show with a discussion of the 15-week national abortion ban proposed by South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsay Graham. Mike thinks it would be a reasonable compromise policy if only it didn’t include a provision allowing stricter state limitations on abortion. Jay isn’t quite sure whether Graham’s proposal is politically brilliant or a dumb move just before the midterms, but in either case, he agrees with Mitch McConnell that this is an issue best left to the states.

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Mike & Jay open the episode with a discussion of Judge Aileen Cannon’s order to appoint a special master to review the Trump Mar-a-Lago raid documents. Mike agrees with many legal analysts (including former Trump Attorney General Bill Barr) that the ruling is on shaky legal ground but sees is as politically wise. Jay agrees, though he thinks that Cannon’s order is more defensible than Mike believes it is.

Next, they turn to Donald Trump’s Pennsylvania rally, which was full of the usual Trump tropes – wild unsupported assertions, airing of grievances, as well as the occasional mention of the candidates he was ostensibly there to support. Mike and Jay agree that Trump may have willingly walked into a trap set by Biden and Democrats, who are eager to make the upcoming midterm elections about Trump. But Jay doesn’t think that it’s likely to move the needle much, while Mike cautions his fellow Democrats to not be too surprised if Republicans end up with control of both chambers in January of 2025.

Then it’s a look at the decision of a New Mexico judge who removed county commissioned Couy Griffin from office, citing his violation of the 14^th Amendment’s Insurrection Clause. Mike & Jay agree that what Griffin did doesn’t amount to insurrection, and that it’s a bad precedent for judges to start deciding that those convicted of no more than misdemeanors are insurrectionists who are barred from office.

Finally, they discuss California’s Fast Food Accountability and Standards Recovery Act, which Governor Newsome signed into law on Labor Day. Mike really likes the sectoral bargaining basis of the law, but he was disappointed in finding no good analyses of the costs and benefits of the legislation. Jay comes out firing, as he hates pretty much everything about the new law.

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Mike & Trey open the episode with a look back at the political legacy of Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, who died this week. They believe that even though Gorbachev has long been out of power, his impact is felt to this day and there are important lessons we can take away from his failure to preserve the Soviet system.

After that, they’re joined by Ken Katkin for a discussion of President Biden’s prime-time speech warning of the danger to democracy posed by MAGA Republicans. Ken and Mike end up being somewhat more critical of Biden’s speech than Trey, who believes it was important for Biden to make a strong, public statement against forces that turned the current GOP into a party Trey finds difficult to support.

Then it’s a discussion of the search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and office. They get into what the unsealed affidavit revealed (not much, due to all the redactions), Trump’s call for a special master to go through the seized materials, the potential dangers of a Trump prosecution, and how they envision events playing out.

They close the episode by looking at the special election to fill Alaska’s lone US House seat, where Democrat Mary Peltola came out on top of Republican Sarah Palin. Mike, Trey, and Ken consider what this election might tell us about the upcoming midterm elections, as well as their thoughts about rank choice voting more generally.

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Trey & Ken start the show by deep diving into Biden’s executive action on student loan forgiveness. Ken argues it is good for the country, won’t impact inflation, and is constitutionally valid. Trey argues that it will increase the cost of higher education in the long run and is simultaneously a sign of a President overstepping his power in order to win midterm votes. 

Next, the pair looks not only at the most recent primaries on Tuesday, but they get deep into midterm predictions, especially for the Senate, New York and Florida. Ken stands by his argument that the Senate remains in Democrats hands. They also talk about what more local races may mean for the national midterms.

The close the show by discussing a brand new district court ruling that public universities that use proctoring software may be violating the 4th Amendment’s protection against unlawful searches.

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Mike & Jay kick off the show by discussing the possibility that the affidavit used to obtain the FBI’s search warrant on Donald Trump’s home and office might be made public, at least in redacted form. They both agree that the unusual circumstances seem to merit more public information than we currently have, though they remain doubtful as to whether we’ll ever see much of the affidavit. They also consider the larger issues concerning the wisdom of the search and how this is likely to improve Trump’s 2024 presidential chances. Throughout, they make far too many Roscoe P. Coltrane (from The Dukes of Hazzard) references.

They follow this up by considering Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul’s call to repeal the Espionage Act. While on one level it may seem like a Republican partisan attempting to shield Trump from prosecution, the Guys point out that the Espionage Act has been used for what they see as unjust (and unconstitutional) prosecutions. But the portions of the Espionage Act that were clearly unconstitutional have long been repealed.

Next, they turn to primary elections in Alaska and Wyoming and what they say about Donald Trump’s hold on the GOP. Mike is inclined to not read too much into Alaska because of its unique politics. Jay argues that Liz Cheney may have succumbed to anti-Trump hysteria and doesn’t see her as a viable 2024 presidential candidate.

Mike’s Recommendation
Reacher (Amazon Prime)

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Mike & Jay devote the bulk of the episode to an in-depth – and at times heated – discussion of the FBI’s execution of a search warrant on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and office. They discuss the wisdom of seizing files in Trump’s possession, whether or not the Department of Justice exhausted all other means before taking such an unprecedented step, how Attorney General Garland has handled the raid and political fallout, and what they think the consequences of the seizure may be.

Next, they look at the latest inflation numbers, which are an improvement from the last few months. This has Mike feeling at least somewhat optimistic, but as Jay cautions, there are still major issues with inflation and it may be too soon for anyone to start celebrating.

After that they discuss the PACT Act, which makes it easier for veterans who may have suffered ill effects from toxic burn pits to get VA medical care. Both Mike and Jay think it’s good legislation, with Mike having a personal interest, having been exposed to toxic burn pits while serving with the Marines in Saudi Arabia.

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After discussing Ken’s need for a title like Jay’s, Trey and Ken tackle the recent upset vote in Kansas on the “Value Them Both” ballot initiative. Ken thinks this means that the Democrats will hold or gain seats in the Senate. Trey isn’t sure that it changes the midterm outcomes, but he does see important cleavages inside the Republican Party. Trey argues that it is easier, and more viable electorally, to take positions than to govern.

Next they talk more broadly about the primary races across the country. One big question is how well Trump supports did, such as in Arizona. Ken, again, sees this as bolstering Democrats in the midterm. Trey, pointing to the most recent polling data, cautions that given that President Biden is being outpolled by former President Trump. They discuss the meaning of the data and how it applies in Pennsylvania.

After that the pair discuss the Senates attempt to codify Roe. The question is: how many votes should the Senate take on various measures to get themselves and the Republicans on the record. Ken argues that they should and they should do so repeatedly in order to maximize their advantage on the social issue.

Then it is a brief discussion of the Senates vote to include Finland and Sweden in NATO. They also discuss Josh Hawley’s lone dissenting vote and what, if anything, it means.

They close with a discussion of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. While they are both in agreement over the value of the trip, they disagree over what they see as the tactic by Biden to isolate the trip. Trey sees it as Biden playing into a view of being weak, while Ken thinks it is strategically smart not to attach the one China policy head on right now.

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After opening with an update on the Brittney Greiner situation, Mike and Jay discuss the big week of legislative activity. They start by discussing the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022”, aka “Baby Build Back Better” (Mike’s hoping that name sticks, though don’t hold your breath). Mike is a big fan, while Jay isn’t nearly as comfortable as Mike (or Joe Manchin) with the tax hikes that not only pay for the climate spending but make it a significant money raiser for the government.

Then they move into the CHIPs Act, the rare major legislation that has attracted bipartisan support. Mike and Jay are on board too, though Mike would like to see it bigger to better compete with China, Taiwan, and South Korea, whereas Jay would have been more comfortable with a pared-down version of the bill.

After that they discuss another bipartisan measure – the Respect for Marriage Act, which recently passed the House with 47 Republican votes. Mike thinks it’s a good idea given his view of the precariousness of the constitutional protection for same-sex marriage. Jay doesn’t think that any state will be willing to run the risk of instituting a same-sex marriage ban, and so sees the legislation as addressing a problem that’s not likely to exist.

They close with a discussion of Monkeypox. Mike argues that it’s yet another public health failing, and that not enough is being done to contain the spread. Jay is more concerned with government overreach and believes that existing funding can be repurposed to deal with this outbreak.

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