Trump’s War, Trump’s Settlement, Trump’s Shadow
Mike and Jay open with the increasingly strange U.S. war with Iran, where a still-closed Strait of Hormuz, murky ceasefire claims, stalled negotiations, and a House war powers vote have raised major questions about Trump’s strategy. Jay argues that Iran remains a serious long-term threat and that Trump may be right to exhaust negotiations before escalating, while admitting that much of the battlefield reality is impossible to judge from public reporting. Mike is far more skeptical, arguing that Trump’s shifting claims, high economic costs, and apparent lack of clear war aims suggest a war of choice that may leave the U.S. worse off than before.
Next, they turn to the Trump administration’s abandoned “anti-weaponization” fund, the IRS settlement with Trump, and the Senate’s immigration funding bill. Jay sees the proposed fund as politically toxic and potentially slush-fund-like, and says claims of government wrongdoing should be handled through ordinary legal channels such as the Federal Tort Claims Act. Mike focuses on the deeper institutional problem: Trump effectively settling with his own administration, ending presidential IRS scrutiny, and putting Senate Republicans in the position of defending a deal that looks collusive even if it may be legally hard to stop.
After that, they discuss the reconciliation bill’s move to fund ICE and Border Patrol through mandatory spending for the next three years. Jay says he would normally dislike bypassing annual appropriations, but thinks the current politics of immigration funding make the maneuver understandable. Mike worries that removing such consequential enforcement funding from regular congressional scrutiny is a bad precedent, even if it is constitutionally permissible.
The guys close with the recent California and Iowa primaries and what they suggest about 2026. Jay argues that Steve Hilton’s strong showing in California highlights the democratic weakness of top-two primaries when a large minority party can be shut out of the general election, while Mike sees Hilton’s vote share as mostly a reflection of California’s existing Republican floor rather than a sign of GOP momentum. On Iowa and the Senate map, Mike thinks Democrats may have more plausible paths but are still unlikely to flip control, while Jay sees Trump’s influence as powerful but potentially less transferable once he is no longer on the ballot.
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