The Politics Guys

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Mike & Jay devote the bulk of the episode to an in-depth – and at times heated – discussion of the FBI’s execution of a search warrant on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and office. They discuss the wisdom of seizing files in Trump’s possession, whether or not the Department of Justice exhausted all other means before taking such an unprecedented step, how Attorney General Garland has handled the raid and political fallout, and what they think the consequences of the seizure may be.

Next, they look at the latest inflation numbers, which are an improvement from the last few months. This has Mike feeling at least somewhat optimistic, but as Jay cautions, there are still major issues with inflation and it may be too soon for anyone to start celebrating.

After that they discuss the PACT Act, which makes it easier for veterans who may have suffered ill effects from toxic burn pits to get VA medical care. Both Mike and Jay think it’s good legislation, with Mike having a personal interest, having been exposed to toxic burn pits while serving with the Marines in Saudi Arabia.

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After discussing Ken’s need for a title like Jay’s, Trey and Ken tackle the recent upset vote in Kansas on the “Value Them Both” ballot initiative. Ken thinks this means that the Democrats will hold or gain seats in the Senate. Trey isn’t sure that it changes the midterm outcomes, but he does see important cleavages inside the Republican Party. Trey argues that it is easier, and more viable electorally, to take positions than to govern.

Next they talk more broadly about the primary races across the country. One big question is how well Trump supports did, such as in Arizona. Ken, again, sees this as bolstering Democrats in the midterm. Trey, pointing to the most recent polling data, cautions that given that President Biden is being outpolled by former President Trump. They discuss the meaning of the data and how it applies in Pennsylvania.

After that the pair discuss the Senates attempt to codify Roe. The question is: how many votes should the Senate take on various measures to get themselves and the Republicans on the record. Ken argues that they should and they should do so repeatedly in order to maximize their advantage on the social issue.

Then it is a brief discussion of the Senates vote to include Finland and Sweden in NATO. They also discuss Josh Hawley’s lone dissenting vote and what, if anything, it means.

They close with a discussion of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. While they are both in agreement over the value of the trip, they disagree over what they see as the tactic by Biden to isolate the trip. Trey sees it as Biden playing into a view of being weak, while Ken thinks it is strategically smart not to attach the one China policy head on right now.

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After opening with an update on the Brittney Greiner situation, Mike and Jay discuss the big week of legislative activity. They start by discussing the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022”, aka “Baby Build Back Better” (Mike’s hoping that name sticks, though don’t hold your breath). Mike is a big fan, while Jay isn’t nearly as comfortable as Mike (or Joe Manchin) with the tax hikes that not only pay for the climate spending but make it a significant money raiser for the government.

Then they move into the CHIPs Act, the rare major legislation that has attracted bipartisan support. Mike and Jay are on board too, though Mike would like to see it bigger to better compete with China, Taiwan, and South Korea, whereas Jay would have been more comfortable with a pared-down version of the bill.

After that they discuss another bipartisan measure – the Respect for Marriage Act, which recently passed the House with 47 Republican votes. Mike thinks it’s a good idea given his view of the precariousness of the constitutional protection for same-sex marriage. Jay doesn’t think that any state will be willing to run the risk of instituting a same-sex marriage ban, and so sees the legislation as addressing a problem that’s not likely to exist.

They close with a discussion of Monkeypox. Mike argues that it’s yet another public health failing, and that not enough is being done to contain the spread. Jay is more concerned with government overreach and believes that existing funding can be repurposed to deal with this outbreak.

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Trey & Ken kick off the show with a look at the missing secret service text messages. They discuss the ongoing legal ramifications and the likely reasons why they disappeared. They then turn to the other issues which came out of the final Jan 6 Committee hearing.

Next, they turn to all the guns. More specifically they discuss the juxtaposition of the Indiana good guy’s action compared to the Uvalde police. Trey argues this highlights a point he agrees with the left on: the problematic nature of the police in the United States and this explains why weapons, in part, are more prevalent in the U.S. Ken agrees with some of the issues of the police, but disagrees on the need for weapons.

After that they look at two separate instances of police and correction officers shooting African Americans and the aftermath of those cases. This continues the disagreement between the hosts, with Trey saying that this explains the uptick in gun ownership by African Americans.

The pair close the show discussing the seventeen members of Congress who were arrested for protesting the Supreme Court over abortion rights and the possible ways that may effect the midterm election.

Recommendations

Trey: Shots in the Dark

Ken: Can You Forgive Her?

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Mike & Jay kick off the show with a look at the Biden administration’s recent guidance to health care providers and pharmacies regarding federal law on abortion services. Mike believes that the guidance is well within the authority of the federal government and should make at least a marginal difference in providing women access to abortion services. Jay doesn’t entirely disagree but feels that the language of the guidance was heavy-handed and could have a chilling effect on medical care providers.

Next, they turn to the most recent inflation report and the state of the economy. Mike believes that while the most recent numbers are bad, there’s a good chance that we’ve turned a corner, though there are some serious structural issues to consider. Jay feels that the Fed should have acted sooner to raise interest rates, and questions the extent to which we should trust “expert opinion” on these matters.

After that comes a discussion of COVID in the wake of the BA.5 variant’s rise. Mike believes that we’re still not doing nearly enough to get the world vaccinated. Jay doesn’t disagree but has much greater concerns than Mike does about how this would happen, and the waste of money due to incompetence and corruption.

Following that, they consider Joe Manchin – the Democrat other Democrats love to hate. Jay argues that Machin’s position on not going along with Democratic proposals on climate change make good policy sense, and his somewhat newfound refusal to consider tax increases is a smart political move. Mike agrees, though he points out the inconsistency between Manchin’s concerns about inflation and his position on tax increases.

Then the guys turn to the case of Brittney Greiner. They conclude that the State Department may need to do a better job of warning travelers heading to particularly dangerous countries, and that high-profile Americans should be especially concerned. While they have reservations about prisoner-swaps, they end up agreeing that they’re almost certain to happen in certain circumstances.

Finally, they consider the “independent state legislature” theory – the idea that state legislatures can make federal election laws that are unreviewable by state courts, even if they may violate the state’s constitution. While they find it an intellectually intriguing argument, in the end Mike & Jay don’t think it holds water, and that when the Supreme Court hears Moore v. Harper – the case that revolves around this theory – a majority of the justices will agree with them.

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Mike & Jay kick off the episode by discussing a bunch of topics related to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling of two weeks ago, including President Biden’s latest executive order, state constitutions and reproductive rights, Mike’s novel interpretation of the Takings Clause, Trey & Ken as proponents of a “living Constitution”, and a lot more.

Next, they turn to the Court’s decision in West Virginia v EPA, a case in which Jay wrote one of the amicus briefs before the Court. They end up agreeing that the Court got it right on the merits, but Mike thinks the dissenters were right that the case didn’t present a live controversy for the Court to hear in the first place.

After that it’s another Supreme Court case – Biden v. Texas, concerning the Biden administration’s attempt to end the Trump administration’s “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum seekers. While both Jay and Mike have sympathy for Justice Alito’s dissent (at least in part), they believe that the Court got it right and that the Biden administration can legally end the Trump-era program.

Following that is Mike’s brief interview with Jenna Spinelle, the host of a great new podcast on citizen initiatives called When The People Decide, more general thoughts on the Supreme Court’s latest term, and a look at the latest work of the January 6^th Committee.

When The People Decide

The McCourtney Institute for Democracy

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Trey & Ken record early this week and do something unique: they give additional insight into the cases of Dobbs and New York State Rifle & Pistol Association covered by Mike and Jay last week.

The duo start by discussing the Cassidy Hutchinson testimony. Ken thinks the likelihood of a Trump inditement has increased. Trey asks what could actually be demonstrated in court. Further the pair discuss the intersection of politics and law in a case such as this. The finish the topic by discussing the implications for Trump challengers to the Republican primary including Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence.

Next is a discussion on the major establishment vs. expression question at the heart of Kennedy v Bremerton School District. Trey is supportive of the bottom line outcome, although he doesn’t believe there was a need to overturn precedent to do it. Ken believes that it is just a particular outcome that was destined to win and that it was a violation of the establishment clause.

After that they close the show by moving on to something unusual: they examine what Mike & Jay had to say on abortion and guns in the Dobbs and New York cases. In Dobbs Trey agrees with the outcome, but disagrees with the reasoning. Specifically he, like Ken, agree that there are more rights than specifically outlined in the constitution. In this way they both disagree with Mike & Jay. On guns Trey believes a close reading of history shows a conflicted set of frames over the meaning of the 2nd Amendment, but that it included an individual right to bear arms. Ken gives no ground and thinks it is historically only connected to states.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.

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