The Politics Guys

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After a tribute (of sorts) to Bob Dole, Mike comes in hot on the Supreme Court’s decision on the Texas abortion case. That surprises Jay, who feels it’s a victory (of sorts) for abortion providers in Texas. Mike agrees with Chief Justice Roberts who, in his partial dissent, argues that “it is the role of the Supreme Court in our constitutional system that is at stake.”

Next, they discuss the debt ceiling deal that was reached this week, getting into the legislative politics of it all as well as patting themselves on the back for calling it correctly (not that it was all that difficult to conclude that in the end the United States government wouldn’t default on its debt). 

Following that they delve into US foreign policy, in a look at the Biden-Putin talks over Ukraine and the Biden administration’s announcement that US diplomats will be boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympic Games in Beijing. 

Then it’s a discussion of the merits of the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Texas for alleged violations of the Voting Rights Act in creating their new congressional and state legislative districts. They agree that the VRA’s racial gerrymandering standards are awfully vague, but Mike believes they still serve a useful purpose, while Jay isn’t so convinced of that. 

After delving into the latest developments surrounding COVID, including a Senate vote to repeal the Biden administration’s workplace vaccine mandate, Mike & Jay look to the future, with their best and worst case predictions for 2022 and years beyond. Mike thinks Democrats have plenty of reasons to be concerned, and while Jay agrees he’s far more optimistic about the demise of authoritarian populism than Mike is.

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Mike & Jay open the show with a discussion of the deal to keep the federal government funded through mid-February, which turns into a much more philosophical argument between Jay’s Machiavellian pragmatism / realism and Mike’s liberal idealism.

Next is a discussion of oral arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which involves Mississippi’s ban on essentially all abortions after 15 weeks. Mike & Jay agree that the Supreme Court will uphold the law and, in the process, allow other states to put into place significant restrictions on the ability of women to have abortions. Where they disagree is whether or not a constitutionally protected right to terminate a pregnancy exists.

After that, they discuss a recent National Labor Relations Board ruling that Amazon acted improperly in a union election at its Bessemer, Alabama warehouse, and that a new election is necessary. Mike agrees with the ruling and believes it’s clear that Amazon was out of line in its anti-union efforts, while Jay doesn’t think the company did anything meriting a re-do of the election. This leads into a broader discussion of the role of unions in America, globalization, automation, and economic vs non-economic concerns of workers.

The show ends with Mike & Jay picking up on a theme from last week – Mike’s alleged privilege. Mike makes the case that, as a White, male, cisgendered, heterosexual, he’s swimming in an ocean of privilege. Jay concedes that Mike has had some advantages based on his gender, race, and sexual orientation, but argues that those advantages are not as great as many on the left claim, and that socioeconomic and cultural issues can be far more important.

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Mike and Jay start off this week’s show with late-breaking news about the emergence of the Omicron COVID variant. Jay brings up the inherent non-political nature of viruses, whereas Mike argues that responses to viruses are inherently political, and that the US and other wealthy countries can and should be doing more.

Next, they discuss President Biden’s release of 50 million barrels of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in coordination with oil reserve releases in other countries. They agree that this move is both political and largely symbolic. Jay believes the administration should make it less difficult to extract fossil fuels, while Mike focuses more on what he believes to be the significant negative climate ramifications of fossil fuels.

Then it’s a look at the verdict in the Ahmaud Arbery case. Mike & Jay both support the jury’s verdict, and agree that there may be widespread issues with favoritism and even corruption in local law enforcement. But they differ on hate crime laws, which Mike supports and Jay believes to be unnecessary.

After that they give two cheers to President Biden’s nomination of Jerome Powell to continue chairing the Federal Reserve and of Lael Brainard to serve as vice chair. Mike is more supportive of the nominations than Jay, largely because Jay takes issue with the Fed’s reluctance to taper asset purchases and raise interest rates. They both agree that while Fed independence may rankle presidents and members of both parties in Congress, it’s a good thing.

Next is a discussion of Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s “Patriot Purge” video. They both see it as egregiously misleading propaganda and lament that some valid points about federal power are buried beneath a mountain of hyperbole and atrocious logic. Mike sees the video as further proof that even if Donald Trump fades from the scene, toxic Trumpism isn’t going away anytime soon and, if anything, may be gaining power. Jay is more hopeful and points out that when similar films were made by Michael Moore, he was praised – Mike agrees, but feels that it’s a false equivalence.

They end the show with listener questions on whether Joe Biden is more like Jimmy Carter or Gerald Ford and why The Politics Guys listeners skew left.

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Trey and Ken get deep into the details this week starting with the Kyle Rittenhouse case. Did the jury get the correct verdict? What are the implications for self-defense in states with both open carry and stand your ground laws? Next they turn to another case: the indictment of Steve Bannon. They talk next steps and the history of executive privilege. Finally it is a discussion of Representative Paul Gosar’s meme attacking the southern border resulting in a vote of censure.

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Mike & Jay open the show with a look at a 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that halts implementation of the Occupational Health and Safety and Health Administration’s rule requiring vaccinations at businesses with 100 or more employees. Both Mike and Jay agree with the ruling, which makes it clear that the OSHA rule would be highly unlikely to succeed on the merits. Mike was disappointed that his preferred policy outcome – requiring workers to get a COVID vaccine or undergo weekly testing – doesn’t seem to be within OSHA’s and possibly even Congress’ legal authority.

Next, they turn to the worsening inflation situation. Mike argues that despite recent increases, there’s good reason to believe that inflation is transitory and that Build Back Better won’t make a meaningful contribution to inflationary pressures. Jay wonders how long inflation has to last before it’s no longer considered transitory, and questions the wisdom of more massive governmental spending in light of recent inflation numbers.

The show closes with a look at a federal appeals court decision to block the release of Trump administration documents to the House January 6th Committee. They both think this was the right decision, with Jay arguing that in the end, he believes that Trump’s claim of executive privilege should be rejected by the courts, and that the committee should get the documents it requested.

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Mike & Jay start off the show by discussing the flurry of last-minute activity that led to the eventual passage of the infrastructure bill, with House progressives (at least enough of them) agreeing to support it in exchange for a commitment from Democratic moderates that they’d support Build Back Better as long as the CBO cost analysis – due in the next few weeks – largely mirrors White House projections. Mike and Jay both support the infrastructure bill (Jay less enthusiastically than Mike) while Mike is more confident than Jay that Build Back Better will also head to President Biden’s desk in the near future.

After that they turn to Tuesday’s elections with a special focus on the Virginia gubernatorial election. Jay believes that Democrats erred in playing the race card in the governor’s race, and that things look good for Republicans in the next year’s midterm elections. Mike focuses more on structural factors which he believes will almost inevitably lead to Democrats losing control of one or both chambers after 2022, and Donald Trump being well positioned for another run at the presidency in 2024.

Mike Recommendation
– Democracy in America. Alexis De Tocqueville

Jay’s Recommendation
– Big White Ghetto. Kevin WIlliamson
– “The Tuesday” Newsletter. Kevin Williamson

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This week Trey and Ken tackle the Wall Street Journal’s opinion piece by Trump. Trey grapples with the rule by which to hold opinions in a liberal society while Ken thinks the WSJ should have contextualized the Trump piece. Next the pair discuss the DOJ Memo on potential violence at school board meetings and the subsequent grilling of Garland in Congress. This leads to a conversation on whether the distance between parents and school boards is a grassroots movement or astroturfing. Finally the pair talk Virginia gubernatorial politics and weigh in on what the race means for the 2022 midterms.

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This week the Republican (Jay) and the RINO (Trey) take over the show. The pair start discussing the Supreme Court’s refusal to uphold the lower court stay on the Texas abortion ban. Next they discuss the political and ideology of the Supreme Court and the recently released draft findings of the Biden Supreme Court Commission. Next, they move to foreign policy and the recent war of words between Biden and Taiwan. The pair close the show with a discussion of Manchin’s threat to be willing to go with $0 of new federal spending.

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Mike & Jay open the show with a discussion of the 5th Circuit overturning a federal district court judge and allowing Texas’ abortion law to remain in effect. Neither Mike nor Jay believe the law is constitutional according to current precedents, but Texas’ clever crafting of the law has made it more difficult for federal courts to enjoin it. Jay wonders when there will be a high profile case with a non-state defendant, which would circumvent the “you can’t sue Texas because Texas isn’t directly enforcing the law” argument. Mike points out that even if the law is eventually overturned it will have achieved in part what many pro-life advocates hoped for — making it much more difficult for women to terminate their pregnancies, at least for a time.

Next is a look at a bunch of economic data on jobs, job switching, unemployment, and inflation. Mike sees the economic news as mixed, but believes that current inflationary pressures are temporary and that it’s a good thing that workers have greater leverage to demand higher pay. Jay is less optimistic about inflation in particular, and is more willing than Mike to attribute much of what we’re seeing to overly-generous government support. Mike admits that Jay will almost certainly end up right in his 2021 year end inflation prediction (Jay predicted around 5%, Mike thought it would be closer to the 2% range), but Mike then decides to make even more predictions – that the CPI will be under 4% by mid April of 2022 and under 3% by July of 2022. Jay thinks both numbers will be higher than that.

Finally, they consider the minimum wage in light of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics going to economist David Card, who is most well known for his work on the minimum wage. Mike points to a considerable body of research suggesting that the conventional wisdom viewing minimum wage hikes are “job killers” is, if not entirely incorrect, at least somewhat overstated. Jay isn’t as convinced, and while he agrees that there probably should be a wage floor, the federal minimum wage shouldn’t be raised. 

Mike Recommendation
The Chair (Netflix)

Jay’s Recommendation
Jay’s amicus brief to the Ohio Supreme Court on unemployment insurance benefits. (Only 12 pages – totally worth checking out to witness Jay doing his “real job” thing.)

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you’re interested in supporting the podcast, go to patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys 

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