The Politics Guys

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Jay and Justin open this episode with their predictions for the upcoming presidential election, with Justin forecasting a narrow Harris victory and Jay expecting Trump to return to the White House. They also discuss how traditional polling methods might be missing key voter segments and how social desirability bias could affect Trump supporters’ willingness to participate in polls.

Next, they look at early voting patterns and Republican voter registration trends, which they agree could be favorable indicators for Trump. They examine the challenges of predicting likely voters and how different pollsters’ methods can yield radically different results from the same raw data.

They close by considering Trump’s recent proposal for widespread tariffs, including a potential 10-20% baseline tariff on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. Jay, drawing on traditional Republican free-market principles, expresses serious concerns about these proposals, while both hosts discuss how such policies could impact the American economy. They explore the mythology of 1950s American industrialism and why attempting to recreate that era through tariffs might be both impractical and economically harmful.

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Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

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Mike and May open with a discussion of Kamala Harris’ interview with Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier. Mike thinks there were several missed opportunities for Harris, while May argues that Harris is a policy lightweight. Mike believes that the focus on immigration and gender transition surgery for inmates says a lot about what matters to the Fox audience, as does the lack of attention paid to healthcare, abortion, Ukraine, and China.

Then they turn to the state of the race and make their presidential predictions – they both think Harris will eke out a win, though neither of them are at all sure about the outcome. In making their prediction, they explain what gives them reason for optimism and what makes them feel pessimistic about the potential outcome.

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Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Castbox | PocketCasts | Overcast

Mike and Jay open with a discussion of the lies told by Donald Trump and JD Vance about FEMA in the wake of disaster relief efforts for hurricanes Helene and Milton. They also get FEMA’s role and whether the agency should be doing more in advance of ever-increasing major natural disasters.

Next is a discussion of oral arguments in two major cases that opened the Supreme Court’s new term – one involving ghost guns and another in which the state of Oklahoma admits prosecutorial misconduct in a death penalty case.

They close with what may be a new media strategy from Kamala Harris, and a look at her 60 Minutes interview, as well as Donald Trump’s call for CBS to have its broadcast license revoked.

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Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Castbox | PocketCasts | Overcast

Trey and Ken start with the Vice-Presidential debate. The conversation begins with an explanation of rejecting the horse-race narrative of analyzing debates and how the VP debate won’t change voting patterns. They also discuss the stability of the presidential polling numbers despite assassination attempts and a candidate dropping out. Next, they look at Iran’s recent missile barrage on Israel. The hosts also discuss Israel’s tactics against Hezbollah. They end the show with a sharp debate over the dockworkers’ strike.

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Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Castbox | PocketCasts | Overcast

Jay and Justin start with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the US, then move to Kamala Harris’s visit to the border to talk immigration policy. They wrap up with a pair of political scandals: New York Mayor Eric Adams and NC Gubernatorial Candidate Mark Robinson

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Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Castbox | PocketCasts | Overcast

Mike and May open with a discussion of the 2^nd attempt (that we know of) on Donald Trump’s life, which turns into a broader consideration of extremist rhetoric on both sides and political violence. May believes that Trump has been targeted more than any other figure, suggesting more of a problem on the left. Mike thinks that things will get considerably worse, no matter which candidate wins in November.

Next, they consider how events have unfolded in Springfield Ohio, in the wake of Donald Trump’s lie about Haitian migrants in Springfield stealing and then eating family pets. May believes that the real focus should be on the problems associated with immigration, while Mike argues that Trump and Vance have crossed an important line – from spinning and exaggerating to having seemingly no concern for truth, if baldfaced lies serve their cause.

From there it’s a look at media avoidance by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. May and Mike agree that it’s a smart strategy, and Mike is more curious as to why JD Vance has been so prominent, given how much of what Vance has to say may turn off undecided voters (at least that’s Mike’s take).

They close with a discussion of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut since 2020. Mike doesn’t buy the argument from Trump that it’s either a sign of a bad economy or that it was politically motivated. May points to how the cut is likely to help people hoping to buy a home.

The Politics Guys on Facebook | X

Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.