Month: May 2019

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Mike & Jay open the show with a look at the latest development in the various investigations and requests for information surrounding President Trump. They agree that while the president’s legal strategy isn’t the strongest, his political strategy – delaying until after the 2020 election and goading the Democrats into impeachment – is a smart one. They also discuss New York’s recently passed law that would allow Congress to receive President Trump’s state tax information.

Next is a discussion of the recent tensions with Iran. Mike points out that this all stems from the Trump administration pulling out of the multilateral Iran nuclear agreement under the assumption that they could get a better deal by squeezing Iran’s economy. Jay largely agrees with the strategy and while Mike understands it, he wonders how successful sanctions are likely to be given our decided lack of success in over half a century of sanctions against Cuba and North Korea.

After that, the Guys talk about the health care conscience rule, which allows providers, insurers, and employers to refuse to provide or pay for health services that violate their religious or moral beliefs. 20 states are suing the administration over this rule, and Mike believes they have a good point, in that it’s likely to result in discrimination against certain groups, especially in underserved rural areas. Jay is more sympathetic to the new rule and feels that if there’s a legitimate need for certain services, the market will find a way to provide it.

Finally, Mike & Jay discuss the ‘Tobacco Free Youth Act’ introduced by tobacco-state Senators Mitch McConnell and Tim Kaine. Mike sees it as a positive step, but not that big of one, arguing that the real fear for the tobacco industry is a ban on flavors, which might hurt the growth of their youth market. Jay’s uncomfortable with the raised restriction, feeling that people can make an informed choice about whether or not to use tobacco. It’s not an argument Mike really buys, given the addictive nature of tobacco – he’d like to see the U.S. move to a total ban of tobacco products over time.

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Mike & Jay start this week’s show by talking about the escalating tensions between the United States and China. Mike actually agrees with President Trump that China may pose a significant security threat and that the time to act is now. But Mike feels that the US can’t act unilaterally and hope to succeed. Jay, as a committed free-trader, views trade wars as ultimately self-defeating and believes that President Trump will end up making a deal with China.

Next is a discussion of the recent anti-abortion law in Alabama, which was expressly designed to provide the Supreme Court an opportunity to overturn Roe v Wade. Mike believes that the Court largely got it right in Roe, while Jay sees the decision as judicial overreach. Neither of them think that the current court is likely to overturn Roe, though if President Trump gets any more appointments , that could change.

Following that is a look at the Supreme Court’s decision allowing a major class-action lawsuit against Apple to go forward. Both Mike and Jay believe the five justices in the majority made the right call, though Jay felt that the dissenters also made some strong points. Mike thinks that, regardless of the decision on the merits, the Court allowing this suit to go forward could cause Apple and other tech giants to act less anti-competitively, for fear of future legal action.

The show closes with a discussion of President Trump’s new immigration plan, which calls for a shift from a largely family ties based system to one focused on education and job skills. Mike thinks it’s a reasonable idea, but only if the overall permanent residency caps are significantly boosted, which would make it something that at least some Democrats could support. Jay is less sanguine about the possibility of any deal, but he agrees that there’s a strong case to be made for more legal immigration.

Senate Republican Policy Committee paper on the Trans Pacific Partnership

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Will and Alexandra open the show discussing Trump’s current approval numbers and potential reasons they have reached a high during his administration. They then discuss the state of the Democratic field for 2020 and how the number of candidates could impact the electability of the eventual nominee. Next, they discuss Alexandra’s research on in-group control and leadership and how it relates to the modern political narrative. They end with listener questions on Trump’s foreign policy legacy and the future of Spygate investigations.

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Will and Alexandra open the show discussing the contempt charges brought against Attorney General Barr and their possible impact. Will argues this is little more than political theater while Alexandra points to the parallels and differences between this and when Republicans found Eric Holder in contempt during the Obama Administration. Both believe the struggle for power between Congress and the President is far from over with Will especially noting how John Roberts must feel watching this while trying to ensure his Court remains politically neutral. They also discuss the subpoena of Donald Trump Jr. by the Senate Intelligence Committee, chaired by Republican Richard Burr and whether it signals more than just a simple subpoena.

Next, they turn to a discussion of Trump’s taxes and efforts in California and Illinois to keep candidates off the ballot who don’t publicly release tax records. Alexandra notes how the numbers released this week show that Trump has been a failed businessman while Will counters that his supporters never chose him for his business acumen. Both believe there’s nothing inherently wrong with sharing tax records, but that there is a question of privacy expectations to be considered. Will strongly notes that Republicans likely could care less about being on the ballot in Democratic states. He does point out possible down-ballot concerns, though. Alexandra, on the other hand, points to the impact if states opt to award their Electoral votes to nation-wide winners. This could change the Republican response.

Will and Alexandra then turn to discussing the economic showdown between the United States and China. Alexandra points to the deep impact tariffs can have on American citizens–especially those with less spending power today. Will points to the disconnect between IP concerns and increased costs of goods, which seems to be the point we have reached. Both believe this will have an impact on the Democratic primaries and 2020 in general–especially for Republican Senators facing re-elections who must navigate between Trump support and their constituents’ economic needs.

Lastly, Will and Alexandra discuss recent actions toward Iran. Will argues that while Iran is a concern that Alexandra is right in asserting they are not an immediate threat. Moreover, Will questions why North Korea is treated differently than Iran given who has ready nuclear weapons and who doesn’t in the relationship. Alexandra worries about the regional impact of our actions and the general tendency of the Trump Administration to bounce from threat to threat without much explained reason. Both Will and Alexandra point to concerns about broader strategy and implications.

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In this episode, Mike & Jay respond to listener questions on:

– electability vs highlighting differences with Trump
– why Mike thinks Jay’s view of Net Neutrality is outdated
– funding for cathedrals vs. funding to fight homelessness
– possible indictments in the Obama spying scandal
– if impeachment talk is bad for the country
– what information presidential candidates should have to release

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Mike & Jay open the show by talking about Attorney General William Barr’s testimony before the Senate and his refusal to testify before the House. Mike says that although he initially gave Barr the benefit of the doubt, it’s now clear that Barr is more interested in carrying water for the president than serving as an impartial arbiter of the law. Jay disagrees, feeling that Barr has been forthcoming with Democrats, who he believes are subjecting Barr to scrutiny for strictly political gain.

Next is a look at the Trump administration’s recent request for $4.5 billion dollars in emergency immigration funding as well as administration proposals to charge fees to asylum seekers and deny them work permits. Mike argues that while emergency funding is needed, it should be focused on hiring more immigration judges. Both Mike and Jay agree that there are potential problems with denying asylum seekers in the country work permits, and that if a fee is charged to asylum seekers, there should be a waiver process in place to ensure that those in clear danger are not prevented from seeking asylum.

After that is a discussion of the crisis in Venezuela, after the failure of opposition leader Juan Guaido’s attempt to oust President Nicolas Maduro (who many people, including Jay and Mike, see as illegitimate). Mike is very wary of US military involvement given the sad history of the United States in Central and South America, while Jay counters that it’s important to keep the military option on the table as well as to respond if the Russians or Cubans stage a significant military intervention of their own.

The show closes with an analysis of the Trump Organization’s lawsuits against several banks to prevent them from turning over Trump’s financial documents to Congress. Mike says that the law on this is clear – Congress has the right to these documents – but that the Trump strategy is to delay until after the 2020 elections. Jay doesn’t disagree, but feels that Congress’ legitimate investigatory authority might be somewhat more limited than Mike views it as being.

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In this episode, Trey & Ken answer listener questions on why presidential candidates aren’t tackling homelessness, whether civility is actually oppression, if Trump could be convicted if impeached, and the causes of the rising costs of higher education.

Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you’re interested in supporting the show, go to patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support.