Fed Rate Increase, Primaries and New Mexico, Trump’s Jan 6 Response, Senate Gun Bill, LGBTQI+ Executive Order

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Trey and Ken kick off the episode with a discussion of the Federal Reserve’s .75 percent rate increase. Ken doesn’t think it is deficit spending and is more related to war. Trey believes while war and COVID are contributing factors they are exasperated by current monetary policy. The pair also weigh in on the idea of greedflation.

Next the pair discuss the primaries in Main, North Dakota, Nevada and South Carolina. They also discuss the rule of law and the Couy Griffin in New Mexico not certifying the vote.

After that it is the most recent revelations concerning Pence with the January 6 Committee along with Trump’s twelve page response. Trey and Ken dive into both the questions of the modality of Trump’s response and the content. They also ask what the probable audience is for the hearings and response.

After that there is a brief update on the major issues facing gun compromise and Ken’s belief that Republican Senators, led by Mitch McConnell, are corrupt. Trey suggests that there are other readings of the impasse.

Finally Trey and Ken talk about Biden’s executive order on LGBTQI+ rights and what impact it is intended to have, and might pragmatically have, on states like Florida.

Trey’s Recommendation

The Invisible Kingdom: Reimagining Chronic Illness by Meghan O’Route

Ken’s Recommendation

Mountain Community Radio

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Will Moravits on Policing and Race in America

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Mike talks with Will Moravits, a former police officer who became a college professor, earning his Masters in Political Science from Texas State University and a PhD in Public Policy and Administration from Walden University. He’s the author of the recently published book The Blue Divide: Policing and Race in America.

Topics Mike & Will Discuss Include:
– Will’s unique perspective as a former cop / current academic
– effectiveness of police use of force training
– understanding how humans respond in high-stress situations
– myths and misconceptions surrounding police use of force
– what Will learned from studying multiple high-profile police shootings
– the case Will makes for a lack of racial bias in police shootings
– defunding the police
– President Biden’s Executive Order concerning federal law enforcement
– Will’s thoughts on how to improve policing

Will Moravits on Twitter

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1/6 Hearings, Kavanaugh Threat, Guns, Summit of the Americas, Formula Shortage, Gas Prices

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Mike & Jay kick off the show with a discussion of the first of a scheduled six hearings from the House January 6th Committee. They share their views on the value of the hearings, what if anything they learned, whether Fox News was right to not carry the hearings live, and more.

Then it’s a look at the man who came to Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home, armed & dangerous and intending to kill Kavanaugh. Mike and Jay consider this in light of larger protests following the leak of Justice Alito’s opinion draft that would overturn Roe v Wade, a decline in trust of government, and issues with judicial filibusters and the nomination process.

After that they return to the issue of guns, talking about Matthew McConaughey’s impassioned speech at the White House, recent legislation passed by the House to address mass shootings, as well as a Justice Department investigation into the Uvalde response.

Following that is a discussion of the Summit of the Americas, being held this year in Los Angeles. Mike & Jay agree that President Biden was right to not invite Latin American anti-democratic leaders, but they disagree about how best to address some of the key issues between the US and Latin American countries.

They close the show with discussions of the baby formula shortage and what it tells us about government as well as markets, as well as sky high gas prices and what, if anything, government can (or should) do about them.

Mike’s Recommendation
Don Winslow’s ‘Power of the Dog’ Trilogy: The Power of the Dog, The Cartel, The Border

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Howard Blum & The Spy Who Knew Too Much

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Ken breaks out his extensive Cold War spy knowledge in this conversation with journalist and New York Times best-selling author Howard Blum. They discuss his recently released book, The Spy Who Knew Too Much: An Ex-CIA Officer’s Quest Through a Legacy of Betrayal. Formerly a reporter for the The Village Voice and the New York Times, Blum is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair. While at the Times, he was twice nominated for a Pulitzer Prize for investigative reporting.

Topics Ken and Howard cover include:
– the uses of intelligence
– moles, traitors, spies
– big moles vs little moles
– the war within the CIA
– Angleton, Golitsyn, and the “Monster Plot”
– the suspicious “suicide” of CIA agent John Paisley
– human vs signal intelligence
– if human intelligence really matters
– spying in the US/ Russia / Ukraine conflict
– and lots more!

Howard Blum on Twitter

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Russia & Ukraine, SCOTUS & Social Media, Sussmann Acquittal, Guns, Heard-Depp, Katz Firing

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Mike & Jay open with a discussion of where we’re at 100 days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Jay is optimistic, and much more so than he was in the early days. Mike largely agrees but is concerned that the pro-Ukraine alliance is beginning to show signs of fraying and might not hold up in the long run, especially in tough economic times.

Next, they discuss the social media laws passed by Texas and Florida and the Supreme Court’s recent 5-4 decision to temporarily halt Texas’ law. Mike sees these laws as blatantly unconstitutional on multiple grounds, while Jay points out that some of the reasoning used in defense of the laws isn’t all that far-fetched.

After that they look at the acquittal of Democratic attorney Michael Sussman, who was indicted by Special Counsel Robert Durham for making false statements to the FBI. Mike thinks it was the right verdict, but also points out that there’s often a significant difference between wrongdoing and wrongdoing that can be successfully prosecuted. Jay agrees, though he tends to be less skeptical of Deep State narratives surrounding the Trump-Russia story than Mike is.

Then it’s more on guns in the wake of yet another mass shooting. This time, Mike attempts to better understand strongly pro-gun, anti-government people by making the best argument he can for more guns and fewer regulations. Jay responds by critiquing Mike’s argument with what he sees as the strongest pro-regulation points.

They wrap things up with stories that involve free speech, the #MeToo movement, and social justice: The Johnny-Depp / Amber Heard trial and the firing of tenured Princeton Professor Joshua Katz.

Jay’s Recommendation
Fear of a Setting Sun. Dennis Rasmussen

Two Songs Mike Would Use For His Campaign Theme
Everybody Knows. Leonard Cohen
American Idiot. Green Day

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Uvalde Shooting, Primaries, Police Accountability, Regulating Big Tech

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Mike & Jay open the show with an extended conversation on the tragic mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas. They discuss the police response, the problem of gun violence in the United States, and a raft of policy proposals from both the left and the right.

Next, they look at the recent primary elections in Georgia and consider whether the shellacking of two high-profile Donald Trump endorsed candidates means the waning of Trump’s influence in the Republican Party. They also look at the upcoming Michigan primary election, where five of the 10 Republican gubernatorial candidates were disqualified from appearing on the ballot.

After that, it’s President Biden’s recent Executive Order on police accountability. Mike & Jay weigh in on the EO, and also whether it should serve as a template for the majority of law enforcement personnel who are not federal and therefore not covered under the order.

They close with a discussion of bipartisan Senate legislation that would force Google and Facebook to sell significant portions of their businesses. Is this idea – which seemingly unites the Libertarian right and the corporate-skeptical left good policy? And what chance does it have of becoming law?

Mike’s Recommendation
America’s Philosophy, with Cornel West. (Vox Conversations)

Jay’s Recommendation
District of Columbia v. Heller (2008) 

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Buffalo Shooting, Pennsylvania Primaries, Cawthorne’s loss, FEC vs Cruz, Bezos vs President Biden, Abortion

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Trey & Ken open the show talking about the Buffalo shooting with a focus on the shooter’s, Payton Gendron, screed. They discuss why the screed is hard to find, its contents, and they tackle the problems of fascism in the United States. They also discuss the underlying racial shifts that fascism and racism has taken.

Next they move to the razor thin Pennsylvania Senate primaries between Oz and McCormick and how Trump’s influence continues, or not, to hold sway. They also discuss how election law and closeness impact election counting.

After that it is scandal ridden Cawthorne’s House loss and a discussion of his comments on “dark MAGA” on instagram. There is also a brief discussion of the gubernatorial primary in Idaho.

Then it is off to the Supreme Court for a conversation on Federal Election Commission v. Cruz and what constitutes a bribe. Here also is a conversation about Supreme Court precedent.

Next is a discussion of Bezos, President Biden, and inflation — specifically the relationship between tax policy and inflation.

They close by revisiting the issue of abortion upon listener request. They discuss, and vigorously disagree over, the philosophic and moral arguments of abortion.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.

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Life After Roe, Trump’s Primary Success, COVID, Ukraine/Russia, Inflation, Expat Mike?

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Mike & Jay open the show with a discussion of the post Roe landscape, given the near certainty of the Supreme Court finding that there is no constitutionally protected right to terminate a pregnancy. They look at some data on pregnancy and abortion, discuss the recent efforts of Democrats to codify Roe’s protections into law, how states are likely to act, and whether a future Republican chamber might pass a national abortion restriction.

Next they turn to Donald Trump’s success as a primary endorser and what it means for Trump’s control over the GOP, followed by the latest on Ukraine – including Finland & Sweden applying for NATO membership and a $40 billion Ukraine package.

After that it’s inflation:  the latest downturn (sort of), what the Fed has been and likely will do in the future, how markets have reacted, how big of a role the American Rescue Plan has played in fueling inflation, and whether US tariffs against China should be rolled back.

They close the show with Mike’s announcement that he and his wife are thinking about retiring to either Uruguay, Chile, or Portugal in the next few years. Mike explains why, brings up some data on how those countries compare to the US in terms of freedom and corruption, and he and Jay discuss the tension between American nationalism and Stoic cosmopolitanism.

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Adam Probolsky on Polling and Partisan Identification

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Trey talks with Adam Probolsky, President of Probolsky Research, a full service opinion research firm specializing in market research and opinion research on elections and public policy, working on behalf of business, government, non-profit, special interest and media clients.

Trey and Adam’s conversation includes:

  • A conversation on political and public policy research.
  • Adam’s overview of quantitative data and polling.
  • How qualitative measures can help create better polling data.
  • Probolsky research on political identification and predicting voting behavior.

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Abortion Leak, Intelligence Leak, Puerto Rico, JD Vance, Shurtleff

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Trey and Ken open the show with a two-pronged discussion of the leaked Alito opinion overturning Roe v Wade. First the pair discuss the opinion itself, the location of the right to privacy, and, ultimately, the legal obligations states can (or should) impose based on the question of what constitutes life. Second, the pair discuss the implications of the leak and who may be the source of the leak.

After that, they turn to another leak: the intelligence community leak in the New York Times suggesting that the U.S. was helping Ukrainian forces target Russian generals. 

Then they turn to the recently decided U.S. v Valero Madero concerning the applicability of the 5th Amendment to Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories. To what extent should the Constitution apply to territories and what are the larger effects of having it apply more uniformly?

Then they turn to the Republican primaries in Ohio and Indiana. The question here is what the data says Trump’s seal of approval means for candidates? How do MAGA candidates fair in the primaries compared to the more mainstream conservatives or if MAGA is the mainstream for the Republican Party.

They close the show by briefly discussing the case of Shurtleff v. City of Boston and why a straightforward case made its way to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Ken’s Recommendation
Bernie

Trey’s Recommendations
The Everything Store

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