Harvard’s Gary King on Gerrymandering, Big Data, & Chinese Social Media Use

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Mike talks to Harvard’s Gary King, author or co-author of over 150 scholarly journal articles, 20 open-source software packages, eight books, and winner of more prizes, awards, and honors than you can shake a stick at. Dr. King is a fellow in eight honorary societies, including the National Academy of Sciences. He is unquestionably one of the preeminent political scientists of the last half century.

His work encompasses a broad range of issues including demographic forecasting, legislative redistricting, Chinese government censorship & social media use, bias in Social Security Administration forecasts, analysis of ‘Big Data’, and numerous publications in the area of what statistics and modeling.

Mike and Dr. King discuss gerrymandering, partisan symmetry, bias in Social Security predictions, how the Chinese government uses social media, and lots more.

– Follow Gary King on Twitter
– Dr. King’s jaw-droppingly impressive page at Harvard

This show is sponsored by Brooklinen.com. Mike is super-picky about bedding, and he thinks Brooklinen’s sheets are the best he’s ever slept under. Brooklinen is so confident that you’ll love their sheets that they offer a risk-free 60-night satisfaction guarantee and a lifetime warranty on all of their sheets and comforters. Politics Guys listeners get $20 off AND free shipping by using promo code tpg at Brooklinen.com.

PG107: North Korean Missile Test, American First Meets the G20, Modern Day Presidential, and Illinois Budget

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This week the show kicks off with Mike and Trey talking about the July 4th North Korean Missile Test. The launch is important because it marks the first intercontinental ballistic missile successfully launched by North Korea and Kim Jung Un. Both Mike and Trey agree there are no great options, but that the options that do exist should rule military intervention off the table.

Next Mike and Trey examine the recently concluded G20 summit. The two major points of interest are Trump’s meeting with Putin and the response to the U.S. exiting the Paris agreement. Mike and Trey also briefly look at Trump’s proposal to create an “impenetrable Cyber Security unit” with Russia.

After that, the Guys move on to the CNN / Trump feud. Both Trey and Mike agree that the item is mainly non-news, but that it represents a larger shift in political communication. The real story is the change to the news media and to the way politicians disseminate information. In short, Trump might be right that Tweeting is the “modern day presidential” thing to do, even if the Guys worry about the longer term effects.

Finally the Guys examine the Illinois budget. The budget, which just passed after two years, brought a bit of disagreement between Mike and Trey. Mike arguing that states have a moral obligation to the poor and Trey arguing that lower taxes must be coupled with lower spending across the board.

What Trey’s Reading:
This week Trey is suggesting you play a video game (yes, he means it): Life is Strange. (Note: the game is playable on all major formats and computer).

What Mike’s Reading:
Avik Roy and Ezra Klein debate the Senate GOP’s health bill. The Ezra Klein Show.

Please consider checking out this week’s sponsors:
Seat Geek, where you can find the best seats at the best prices – fully guaranteed, and it only takes a few taps on the app or a few clicks if you access it through their website. Use our promo code POLITICSGUY for $20 off your first purchase. Go to Seat Geek or download the Seat Geek app to save big on tickets.

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Brooke Gladstone On The Media

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Mike talks to Brooke Gladstone, co-host and managing editor of WNYC’s On The Media. Ms. Gladstone has won multiple awards for her reporting, including a National Press Club Award and two Peabody Awards. She’s also the author of two books: The Influencing Machine, a media manifesto in graphic form and, most recently, The Trouble With Reality: A Rumination on Moral Panic in Our Time, which came out in May.

Brooke Gladstone’s Recommended News Sources
– Talking Points Memo
– Vox
– Commentary
– The Weekly Standard
– National Review
– The New York Times
– The Washington Post
– National Public Radio

Follow Brooke Gladstone on Twitter
https://twitter.com/OTMBrooke

We hope you’ll check out this show’s sponsors:
Blue Apron – a better way to cook. Check out this week’s menu and get your first three meals free, with free shipping, by going to https://blueapron.com/tpg

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PG106: Healthcare Holdup, Travel Ban, Religious Funding, Seattle’s Fight for 15

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This week’s show starts off with Mike and Jay taking a look at the currently stalled Senate GOP healthcare bill. Between the bill’s broad unpopularity and a devastating Congressional Budget Office score, it looks like it’s going to be tough for Mitch McConnell to get this bill through his chamber without some significant changes. While Mike and Jay differ greatly on the merits of Obamacare, they both agree that, to this point, Republicans haven’t offered a serious, carefully considered conservative alternative to it.

Next it’s a look at some big news from the Supreme Court. The Court partially lifted the injunctions imposed by lower federal courts on President Trump’s travel ban, and said it would hear the case in October, at the beginning of its next term. Both Jay and Mike feel this is the right call, though Jay feels the injunction should have been completely lifted, which Mike doesn’t agree with. After that, they discuss a Supreme Court decision that allows state funding for religious institutions. Jay feels the seven members in the majority got it right, and Mike just barely agrees, though he feels that Justices Sotomayor and Ginsburg make some important points in dissent.

After that, the Guys talk about a new research study on Seattle’s minimum wage experiment. The study, which found that the boost actually cost workers money, was praised by the right, with the left finding plenty of holes in the methodology. Jay feels this vindicates conservative common sense, while Mike argues that it’s only one flawed study (as all studies are, to a certain extent) and although it should be taken into consideration, the weight of the evidence still supports the overall benefit of minimum wage hikes.

What Jay’s Reading:
Stop Pretending You’re Not Rich. Richard Reeves

On Campus, Failure is on the Syllabus. Jessica Bennett

What Mike’s Reading:
The Policy Scout Podcast


Please consider checking out this week’s sponsors:
Seat Geek, where you can find the best seats at the best prices – fully guaranteed, and it only takes a few taps on the app or a few clicks if you access it through their website. Use our promo code POLITICSGUY for $20 off your first purchase. Go to seatgeek.com or download the Seat Geek app to save big on tickets.

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Kurt Schlichter Explains How Hillary Clinton is Evil & Listener Mail

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There was so much intense listener response to Mike’s recent interview with Townhall.com columnist Kurt Schlichter, that Mike and Jay decided to devote the first part of this listener mail episode to addressing those responses and explaining why Mr. Schlichter was invited on the show. Mr. Schlichter himself appears in this episode, to explain what he meant when, in the interview, he repeatedly referred to Hillary Clinton as evil.

After that, the Guys answer listener mail, including questions about climate change, reasons for opposition to normalizing relations with Cuba, and their thoughts on a Politics Guys ‘Cheers’ analogy.

We hope you’ll check out the sponsors of today’s show:
Dollar Shave Club, where new members get their 1st month of the Executive Razor with a tube of their Dr. Carver’s Shave Butter for ONLY $5 with FREE shipping. In your first month’s box, you get a weighty handle, a full cassette of four Executive cartridges and a tube of Shave Butter. You can only get this offer now by going to https://dollarshaveclub.com/tpg

SeatGeek, where you can find the best seats at the best prices. Politics Guys listeners get $20 of their first purchase. Either download the app or go to https://seatgeek.com and enter promo code POLITICSGUY at checkout.

PG105: Senate Health Bill, Special Election, Russia Sanctions

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This week, Mike and Jay start things off by talking about health care bill unveiled by Senate Republicans. Mike sees it as a nearly trillion dollar tax cut financed by draconian cuts to Medicaid, whereas Jay believes it may help by giving states more authority and halting what he sees as unsustainable Medicaid cost growth.

Then it’s a look at the Georgia special election, where Democrat Jon Ossoff narrowly lost to Republican Karen Handel. Mike says Democrats shouldn’t overreact because Democrats have over performed in all four of the special elections held to elect replacements for Trump administration officials formerly serving in the House. Jay points out that a loss is a loss, and Democrats are 0-4.

After that, they discuss Russia sanctions, both new sanctions unveiled by the Trump administration and a Senate bill – passed by a vote of 98-2 – calling for tougher sanctions and making it harder for the president to reverse sanctions.

What Jay’s Reading
The Last Battle for Democracy in Venezuela (WSJ – paywall)

What Mike’s Reading
The Brookings Cafeteria (podcast)

We hope you’ll check out this week’s sponsors:
Seat Geek, where you can find the best seats at the best prices – fully guaranteed, and it only takes a few taps on the app or a few clicks if you access it through their website. Use our promo code POLITICSGUY for $20 off your first purchase.

ZipRecruiter, which lets you post your job to 100 plus job sites with just one click. Unlike other job sites, ZipRecruiter doesn’t depend on candidates finding you; it finds them. In fact, over 80% of jobs posted on ZipRecruiter get a qualified candidate in just 24 hours! Politics Guys listeners can post jobs on ZipRecruiter for FREE. Just go to https://www.ziprecruiter.com/politicsguy

An A+ For Donald Trump

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Mike talks to Kurt Schlichter, an attorney, retired Army infantry colonel, and Senior Columnist for Townhall.com. His commentary on political, military, and legal issues has been featured in numerous national outlets, such as Fox News, CNN, and the Hugh Hewitt Show.

They discuss why Hillary Clinton has less respect for democratic norms than Donald Trump, scuzzy bureaucrats in the intelligence community hoping to destroy the Trump presidency, why he gives Trump a grade of A+ so far, the complete lack of evidence in the Russia probes, and lots more!

– follow Kurt Schlichter on Twitter

Kurt’s Recommended Sites
– Townhall
– Instapundit
– American Greatness
– American Thinker

PG 104: Shootings, Sessions, Cuba, and the Federal Reserve

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Mike and Trey start this week with the tragic shooting of Rep. Steve Scalise by James Hodgkinson and the unfortunate political communications uproar in its aftermath. Both Mike and Trey worry that democracy may be losing a pillar when demonization is the new normal.

After that they talk about the rollback of Obama’s Cuba opening. Trump is returning to an older policy of restrictions, although his rhetoric is more drastic than his actual changes.

Later Mike and Trey discuss the Sessions testimony and the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. Finally they end the show with what they;re reading now and the unlikely truth that both Trey and Mike love Roberts’ Napoleon biography.

What Mike’s Reading
– Yes, Congress is getting less smart. No it’s not Trump’s fault. Max Enrenfreund

What Trey’s Reading
–Napoleon, A Life. Andrew Roberts

Moneyball for Politics: Sasha Issenberg’s ‘The Victory Lab’

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Mike talks to Sasha Issenberg, a political journalist whose work has appeared in Slate, Washington Monthly, The Atlantic, and lots of other places. He’s a contributor to Bloomberg Politics and the author of multiple books, including the widely praised The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns which Politico called ‘Moneyball for Politics’.

Follow Sasha on Twitter

Climate Change Politics & Policy after Paris

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Mike and Jay received so much listener feedback on our discussion of President Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accord (in episode 102) that they decided to do this special follow-up. In it, they cover the ‘We Are Still In’ movement, what states – especially California – are doing, whether or not Jay believes human activity is responsible for climate change, and why Mike wants us to significantly slow emissions today, whereas Jay feels that we’re better off growing the economy and waiting for what he believes will be better and cheaper emission control and climate change mitigation technology in the future. They also respond to listener comments.